Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08b48bb7d197a06f7b42822bf5739b8d9473947c9d8ca2628aa633971127de6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Natus Vincere, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $676,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $779,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $676,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 399 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 61,790$31,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,000 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Natus Vincere | 26c | 33,027$8,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,580.5 | 179 | 48.6%87 W · 92 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67bb…b6efbacked Natus Vincere | 49c | 28,468$13,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,818.73 | 281 | 59.8%168 W · 113 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffe9…a70ebacked Natus Vincere | 41c | 27,700$11,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,329.54 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked Aurora | 55c | 27,500$15,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,357.46 | 802 | 56%449 W · 353 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eca…5a59backed Aurora | 55c | 21,745$11,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,786.24 | 400 | 51.5%206 W · 194 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3833…33d1backed Aurora | 57c | 20,000$11,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,613.31 | 426 | 50%213 W · 213 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…189dbacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 19,990$9,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,994.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4183…96bfbacked Natus Vincere | 52c | 19,284$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…40dfbacked Natus Vincere | 42c | 16,233$6,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,787.45 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Natus Vincere | 17c | 16,190$2,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,703.36 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3936…366dbacked Natus Vincere | 45c | 15,599$6,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,947.96 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…c556backed Aurora | 51c | 15,000$7,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,350 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Natus Vincere | 35c | 14,596$5,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,160.43 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 12,592$6,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,043.96 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Aurora | 55c | 12,000$6,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,446.08 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Aurora | 55c | 11,999$6,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,360.48 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Aurora | 56c | 11,134$6,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,898.93 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…ac55backed Aurora | 50c | 11,111$5,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,555.5 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c2…c023backed Aurora | 57c | 10,315$5,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,477.9 | 489 | 54.6%267 W · 222 L | +23.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Aurora | 57c | 10,029$5,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,332.74 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed Aurora | 59c | 10,019$5,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,118.84 | 686 | 49.7%341 W · 345 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Aurora | 55c | 10,001$5,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,526.97 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb50…c452backed Natus Vincere | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed Aurora | 56c | 8,228$4,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,592.32 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…f24abacked Natus Vincere | 25c | 8,108$1,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,987.59 | 503 | 47.1%237 W · 266 L | +14.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora | 79c | 7,841$6,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,649.33 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Aurora | 59c | 7,755$4,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,200.99 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97fd…3313backed Aurora | 49c | 6,764$3,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,449.47 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Natus Vincere | 22c | 6,300$1,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,374.29 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2744…7e85backed Aurora | 51c | 6,166$3,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,019.66 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x93bd…bbc5backed Aurora | 79c | 6,139$4,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,294.18 | 537 | 64.4%346 W · 191 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd1…285dbacked Natus Vincere | 45c | 6,001$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700.3 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…b62abacked Aurora | 56c | 5,718$3,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,496.29 | 393 | 43.3%170 W · 223 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82d2…beeabacked Aurora | 50c | 5,562$2,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,781.1 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05a7…42e6backed Aurora | 52c | 5,191$2,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,491.49 | 410 | 56.8%233 W · 177 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…c82abacked Aurora | 56c | 5,009$2,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,187.58 | 614 | 56%344 W · 270 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…85a5backed Aurora | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 696 | 44.5%310 W · 386 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Aurora | 51c | 4,788$2,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,331.92 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56a2…eba2backed Natus Vincere | 44c | 4,679$2,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,058.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Natus Vincere | 42c | 4,669$1,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,961.04 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…1363backed Aurora | 62c | 4,566$2,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,714.41 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3601…44fbbacked Aurora | 67c | 4,491$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,490.68 | 169 | 54.4%92 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefee…d2b3backed Natus Vincere | 60c | 4,485$2,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,710.6 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03a2…7e3ebacked Natus Vincere | 24c | 4,289$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.41 | 122 | 48.4%59 W · 63 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked Aurora | 66c | 4,147$2,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,430.33 | 430 | 49.1%211 W · 219 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d9…832cbacked Aurora | 52c | 4,000$2,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,918.21 | 419 | 44.2%185 W · 234 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Natus Vincere | 25c | 3,871$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.82 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ee…a621backed Aurora | 79c | 3,567$2,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.18 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e62…f6ffbacked Aurora | 50c | 3,500$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Aurora | 58c | 3,397$1,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,412.92 | 565 | 48%271 W · 294 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Aurora | 69c | 3,159$2,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.62 | 340 | 51.5%175 W · 165 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f8…d85abacked Natus Vincere | 31c | 2,942$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed Aurora | 44c | 2,686$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,510.43 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…a7abbacked Natus Vincere | 45c | 2,650$1,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192.5 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…d49fbacked Natus Vincere | 44c | 2,501$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.44 | 174 | 52.3%91 W · 83 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Aurora | 58c | 2,443$1,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.34 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Natus Vincere | 52c | 2,400$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…cca4backed Aurora | 55c | 2,280$1,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.67 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe872…819abacked Natus Vincere | 45c | 2,265$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.46 | 223 | 40.4%90 W · 133 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…0d51backed Aurora | 49c | 2,240$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150.97 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…4d12backed Aurora | 78c | 2,207$1,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.98 | 350 | 62.6%219 W · 131 L | +44.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Aurora | 54c | 2,176$1,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.14 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc2…514cbacked Aurora | 57c | 2,173$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.08 | 338 | 45.6%154 W · 184 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Natus Vincere | 21c | 2,151$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.7 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9925…39cfbacked Natus Vincere | 1c | 2,025$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a6…ab62backed Aurora | 76c | 2,010$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.53 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…ed24backed Natus Vincere | 27c | 1,984$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 1,908$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebe…5e6fbacked Aurora | 52c | 1,804$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.96 | 257 | 52.1%134 W · 123 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Natus Vincere | 70c | 1,795$1,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.49 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…80d0backed Aurora | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.46 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…febfbacked Aurora | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.71 | 216 | 50.9%110 W · 106 L | -25.3wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Aurora | 78c | 1,779$1,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.78 | 656 | 47.3%310 W · 346 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x491d…f42bbacked Aurora | 56c | 1,773$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.55 | 396 | 60.1%238 W · 158 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 1,664$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.98 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…92fbbacked Aurora | 56c | 1,658$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af1…d739backed Aurora | 48c | 1,617$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.99 | 226 | 44.7%101 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…f573backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 1,615$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f6…f51cbacked Aurora | 75c | 1,612$1,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.76 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Aurora | 59c | 1,491$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.76 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…e80abacked Aurora | 49c | 1,477$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581f…9d8ebacked Aurora | 58c | 1,456$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.87 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba06…8024backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 1,415$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.39 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Aurora | 53c | 1,405$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.53 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Natus Vincere | 43c | 1,322$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.75 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Aurora | 56c | 1,306$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.17 | 269 | 56.1%151 W · 118 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Aurora | 52c | 1,289$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.72 | 507 | 49.7%252 W · 255 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2495…28f5backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 1,284$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.86 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94f1…b9e7backed Natus Vincere | 25c | 1,256$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.82 | 459 | 51.9%238 W · 221 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb4…0872backed Natus Vincere | 17c | 1,250$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…9659backed Aurora | 56c | 1,200$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528 | 494 | 55.1%272 W · 222 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef26…05babacked Aurora | 27c | 1,184$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.01 | 254 | 46.1%117 W · 137 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Aurora | 61c | 1,165$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.31 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb69…cfd1backed Aurora | 58c | 1,097$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.6 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked Aurora | 41c | 1,050$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.06 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56d6…4404backed Aurora | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Aurora | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae1…befbbacked Aurora | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 301 | 55.5%167 W · 134 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Natus Vincere | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague PlayoffsAurora won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora - Game 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)Natus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.