Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17d041498f81d0d23670f4fa2db138ccb17ff8fa066c66a36dd133ee219e140e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $472,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $556,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $472,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 314 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 35,800$17,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,200.32 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked Aurora | 51c | 26,500$13,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,483.31 | 802 | 56%449 W · 353 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffe9…a70ebacked Aurora | 50c | 24,590$12,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,345.37 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…40dfbacked Natus Vincere | 59c | 22,932$13,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,430.68 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Aurora | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,799.98 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4183…96bfbacked Aurora | 50c | 15,926$8,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67bb…b6efbacked Natus Vincere | 77c | 13,464$10,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,079.45 | 281 | 59.8%168 W · 113 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…ac55backed Aurora | 53c | 11,802$6,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,251.17 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 11,262$5,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,601.86 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora | 34c | 10,943$3,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,753.65 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…189dbacked Natus Vincere | 49c | 10,173$4,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,188.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Natus Vincere | 57c | 9,787$5,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,198.59 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Natus Vincere | 51c | 8,000$4,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,920 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…f24abacked Aurora | 26c | 6,644$1,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,694.9 | 503 | 47.1%237 W · 266 L | +14.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Natus Vincere | 52c | 6,497$3,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,097.05 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e4…4f8abacked Aurora | 49c | 6,490$3,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,195.13 | 96 | 30.2%29 W · 67 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf991…3965backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 6,285$3,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,117.79 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…b62abacked Aurora | 33c | 6,061$1,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,970.55 | 393 | 43.3%170 W · 223 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb234…1c20backed Natus Vincere | 53c | 5,019$2,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,362.73 | 290 | 42.1%122 W · 168 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97fd…3313backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,650 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e04…28a9backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 176 | 51.1%90 W · 86 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05a7…42e6backed Aurora | 42c | 4,523$1,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,901.34 | 410 | 56.8%233 W · 177 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…4d12backed Natus Vincere | 63c | 4,413$2,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,626.32 | 350 | 62.6%219 W · 131 L | +44.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Natus Vincere | 49c | 3,987$1,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,025.62 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…c82abacked Aurora | 48c | 3,939$1,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,885.23 | 614 | 56%344 W · 270 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…85a5backed Aurora | 50c | 3,803$1,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,915.37 | 696 | 44.5%310 W · 386 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03a2…7e3ebacked Aurora | 28c | 3,724$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.78 | 122 | 48.4%59 W · 63 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Aurora | 30c | 3,340$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.28 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c2…c023backed Natus Vincere | 60c | 3,340$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,339.51 | 489 | 54.6%267 W · 222 L | +23.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Aurora | 27c | 3,249$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.15 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Aurora | 41c | 3,046$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.92 | 656 | 47.3%310 W · 346 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Aurora | 32c | 3,000$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.24 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…fee0backed Aurora | 48c | 2,700$1,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284 | 603 | 49.9%301 W · 302 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 2,698$1,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,383.53 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Natus Vincere | 76c | 2,618$1,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.04 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…ed24backed Natus Vincere | 61c | 2,475$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.9 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9925…39cfbacked Aurora | 1c | 2,248$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…a7abbacked Aurora | 31c | 2,142$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.92 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa503…c5b9backed Aurora | 47c | 2,135$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Aurora | 30c | 2,061$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.18 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a11…eb9dbacked Natus Vincere | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.81 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 134 | 56%75 W · 59 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…cca4backed Aurora | 31c | 1,955$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.2 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere | 63c | 1,899$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.67 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Aurora | 48c | 1,895$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.8 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Aurora | 10c | 1,891$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.29 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Natus Vincere | 62c | 1,818$1,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.14 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab1…9b4fbacked Natus Vincere | 61c | 1,634$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.05 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7c…4c16backed Aurora | 15c | 1,626$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.56 | 121 | 36.4%44 W · 77 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x024c…5fa1backed Aurora | 40c | 1,455$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.05 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Aurora | 47c | 1,437$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.31 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 1,396$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684 | 446 | 45.7%204 W · 242 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb69…cfd1backed Aurora | 27c | 1,396$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f0…3d5ebacked Aurora | 6c | 1,369$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.59 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf5…8483backed Natus Vincere | 52c | 1,364$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.45 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Natus Vincere | 59c | 1,335$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.33 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Aurora | 17c | 1,334$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.78 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…47fcbacked Aurora | 51c | 1,300$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…9659backed Aurora | 47c | 1,200$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.99 | 494 | 55.1%272 W · 222 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaf…f5d1backed Aurora | 36c | 1,183$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.88 | 357 | 37%132 W · 225 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Aurora | 34c | 1,172$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.9 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 1,155$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.8 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ee…a621backed Natus Vincere | 59c | 1,140$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.3 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…2345backed Aurora | 41c | 1,100$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451 | 259 | 35.5%92 W · 167 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9e…7928backed Aurora | 44c | 1,100$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Aurora | 45c | 1,078$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.99 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Natus Vincere | 74c | 1,034$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.17 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…1363backed Natus Vincere | 62c | 1,032$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.96 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Aurora | 44c | 1,019$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.54 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb517…434bbacked Aurora | 49c | 1,006$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.52 | 228 | 42.1%96 W · 132 L | -25.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Aurora | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 268 | 46.6%125 W · 143 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed Aurora | 38c | 999.99$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.5 | 515 | 44.9%231 W · 284 L | +40.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…980cbacked Aurora | 50c | 982.07$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.04 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed Natus Vincere | 55c | 977.43$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.84 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2662…3f84backed Natus Vincere | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 145 | 62.1%90 W · 55 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Natus Vincere | 47c | 893.61$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.22 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab12…764ebacked Natus Vincere | 59c | 859.99$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.6 | 270 | 60%162 W · 108 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…fe5dbacked Natus Vincere | 66c | 781.85$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.85 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Aurora | 13c | 777$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.33 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d1…3b0dbacked Aurora | 14c | 749.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 49 | 10.2%5 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Aurora | 4c | 734.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 162 | 32.7%53 W · 109 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Aurora | 26c | 716.78$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.77 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Aurora | 31c | 686.86$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.73 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7a…6c9abacked Aurora | 16c | 686.7$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.19 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bd…bbc5backed Natus Vincere | 61c | 665.16$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.63 | 537 | 64.4%346 W · 191 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Aurora | 29c | 655.34$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.37 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…c1dabacked Natus Vincere | 80c | 628.05$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.05 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x495d…68d8backed Aurora | 48c | 621.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…e798backed Aurora | 48c | 607.62$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 720 | 35.1%253 W · 467 L | -24.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…5627backed Aurora | 52c | 600$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 162 | 56.8%92 W · 70 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e69…7f76backed Natus Vincere | 53c | 600$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ed…1ea1backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 598.09$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.99 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…86e1backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 595.51$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.51 | 242 | 44.6%108 W · 134 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x930b…0223backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.24 | 234 | 59%138 W · 96 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Aurora | 26c | 540.06$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.26 | 565 | 48%271 W · 294 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e3…22cbbacked Aurora | 55c | 535.07$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed Natus Vincere | 68c | 529.84$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.14 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8d…80c8backed Aurora | 14c | 513.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.26 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bcc…b4fabacked Natus Vincere | 65c | 513.85$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.85 | 169 | 59.2%100 W · 69 L | +14.8wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58d1…7ab6backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 513.67$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.67 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague PlayoffsAurora won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)Natus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.