College Football · resolved market
Spread: North Texas (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xded45e331f4cc9be344f39a7a3d375e87ba031242c1097854937a8427a45f83c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- North Texasof North Texas, Navy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9af…6371backed North Texas | 53c | 10,377$5,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,877.36 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c64…d791backed Navy | 49c | 5,782$2,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,833.18 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20c4…4f31backed North Texas | 51c | 5,677$2,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,781.73 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8576…21e0backed North Texas | 51c | 5,644$2,878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,765.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c9…4e74backed Navy | 49c | 5,316$2,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,604.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Navy | 47c | 5,040$2,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,368.8 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Navy | 47c | 4,237$1,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,991.56 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9811…3827backed North Texas | 51c | 4,016$2,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,967.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x360e…9d19backed Navy | 49c | 3,877$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,899.73 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf3…5794backed North Texas | 51c | 3,120$1,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,528.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc491…a2fcbacked Navy | 49c | 3,120$1,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,528.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Navy | 48c | 3,089$1,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,482.83 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…8a3bbacked Navy | 49c | 2,982$1,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,461.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc0…4053backed North Texas | 51c | 2,657$1,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,301.93 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c96…4fa0backed North Texas | 51c | 2,531$1,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…20b1backed North Texas | 51c | 2,508$1,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,228.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2157…dda0backed Navy | 49c | 2,347$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e45…2390backed North Texas | 51c | 2,197$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.53 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 52cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc40…c293backed Navy | 49c | 2,079$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked North Texas | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb803…5a53backed North Texas | 51c | 1,920$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x117e…7478backed North Texas | 51c | 1,755$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…5a91backed Navy | 49c | 1,721$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.29 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…a8b2backed Navy | 49c | 1,687$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dce…1c1ebacked Navy | 49c | 1,578$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…483fbacked Navy | 49c | 1,531$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7bcdbacked North Texas | 51c | 1,526$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8feb…a6d3backed Navy | 49c | 1,457$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.93 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed North Texas | 51c | 1,272$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.5 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Navy | 49c | 1,250$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.5 | 120 | 42.5%51 W · 69 L | -11.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed North Texas | 50c | 1,159$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.84 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e9…8dcfbacked North Texas | 51c | 1,126$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.74 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 52cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9993…a11cbacked Navy | 49c | 1,123$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b51…5c96backed North Texas | 51c | 1,055$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa496…c6a4backed North Texas | 51c | 1,049$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd56…ddc7backed North Texas | 51c | 1,032$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Navy | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bc…9dc9backed Navy | 50c | 960$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked North Texas | 52c | 898$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.04 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe378…1faabacked Navy | 49c | 798$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf108…83a3backed Navy | 49c | 632$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f30…ac7fbacked Navy | 49c | 536$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x022f…645cbacked Navy | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2861…b770backed Navy | 49c | 496$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked North Texas | 52c | 318.38$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.82 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed North Texas | 52c | 306.25$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Navy | 48c | 291.67$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd09c…bc3dbacked Navy | 49c | 251$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Navy | 48c | 210.25$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.9 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed North Texas | 52c | 143$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.64 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Navy | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Navy | 47c | 90$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed Navy | 49c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.25per pick | 40cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…da76backed Navy | 49c | 51.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460e…2efbbacked North Texas | 51c | 51.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f9…66ffbacked Navy | 49c | 50.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc446…c175backed North Texas | 51c | 50.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73a0…dd5bbacked North Texas | 51c | 49.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d46…8029backed Navy | 49c | 49.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: North Texas (-6.5)this page
- Navy vs. North TexasNorth Texas won
- Navy vs. North Texas: 1H MoneylineNorth Texas won
- Navy vs. North Texas: O/U 64.5Under won
- O/U 65.5Under won
- Spread: North Texas (-5.5)North Texas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.