TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. Montana Grizzlies

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Montana Grizzliesof Northern Arizona Lumberjacks, Montana Grizzlies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,085
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,231

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,085 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Montana Grizzlies78c4,500$3,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$990.435,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks7c1,910$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.062,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a4e…3309backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks45c1,762$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7865735.1%20 W · 37 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x004e…90f8backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks27c1,721$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.1719237%71 W · 121 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19f8…98f9backed Montana Grizzlies67c1,195$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.9848462.8%304 W · 180 L-0.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef34…86b2backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks19c1,033$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004047.5%19 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf37c…3c74backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks21c1,032$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22121830.7%67 W · 151 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks18c849.56$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.51,17325.2%296 W · 877 L-43.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-21.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks29c739.63$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.712,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Montana Grizzlies69c641.39$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.121,07443.3%465 W · 609 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc935…2579backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks24c600$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14460%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x20ae…f107backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks34c550.91$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.5242327.2%115 W · 308 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Montana Grizzlies71c469.71$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.151,39144.1%613 W · 778 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks28c386$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.0852928.4%150 W · 379 L-9.2wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Montana Grizzlies71c369$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.012,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Montana Grizzlies73c363.83$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.74,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42b8…5379backed Montana Grizzlies66c326.22$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.222860.7%17 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Montana Grizzlies65c318.05$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.13,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Montana Grizzlies66c315.89$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.171,91049.6%947 W · 963 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks29c300$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872040%8 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-29.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Montana Grizzlies73c273.42$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.8210757.9%62 W · 45 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012642.1%53 W · 73 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf702…7cc8backed Montana Grizzlies70c220$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6617544%77 W · 98 L-13.5wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-25.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5df1…2da7backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks21c192.24$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.378930.3%27 W · 62 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe30e…4eedbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks20c163.73$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.918518.8%16 W · 69 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-16.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks28c151$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.692,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Montana Grizzlies72c149$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.721,54041.3%636 W · 904 L+4.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63a1…a993backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks14c142.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Montana Grizzlies52c126.78$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.853,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4534…1fc2backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks27c116.08$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+74.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcfa…3d92backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks24c104.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks17c96.58$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.354,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ce0…e809backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks38c80.69$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Montana Grizzlies80c74$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.87467.6%50 W · 24 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick71cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b9d…1555backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks21c70.17$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.87560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+18.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Montana Grizzlies72c60$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.583,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed Montana Grizzlies57c57.89$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.897157.7%41 W · 30 L+7.3wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+13.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks35c57.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202650%13 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe37a…3478backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201850%9 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe92e…1e38backed Montana Grizzlies77c51.95$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.953256.3%18 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick65cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks25c44.72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0357335.6%204 W · 369 L-27.3wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks27c43.83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.031,63347.3%773 W · 860 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafe7…8b77backed Montana Grizzlies70c42.49$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.756558.5%38 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc345…2c35backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks45c35.04$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.82466.7%16 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa163…18afbacked Montana Grizzlies72c27.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.78366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8716…5830backed Montana Grizzlies78c22.48$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.914100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+81.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Montana Grizzlies75c21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.252,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dbe…e1d8backed Montana Grizzlies79c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe026…0404backed Montana Grizzlies69c14.56$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5112355.3%68 W · 55 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.