Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FK Crvena zvezda vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf13f89c95ddfe7d41f93fc0ea47ff7e5b3dd997b5abd7f6667d8b031c457d44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 4c | 1,431$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.82 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0724…9091backed No | 77c | 1,217$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.95 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd0…b719backed Yes | 23c | 869.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 18c | 453.38$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.22 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 24c | 303.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.06 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2d…d310backed Yes | 23c | 250$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 77c | 225.98$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.95 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 24c | 218.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4e…5c01backed No | 77c | 206.45$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 24c | 196$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed No | 76c | 182.78$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.87 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf1…3018backed No | 76c | 158$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 28c | 154$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 130$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…f368backed Yes | 17c | 117.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 76c | 109$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed No | 76c | 100.21$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd778…0ca4backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed No | 72c | 47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked No | 80c | 36.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ea…2f71backed No | 73c | 31.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed No | 77c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 254 | 40.6%103 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FK Crvena zvezda vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Viktoria Plzeň win on 2026-08-20?No won
- Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2026-08-20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.