South American Leagues · resolved market
Universidad Central de Venezuela FC vs. Independiente del Valle: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf2dc3f8122ab04d040f9606c7dbca356c6d7fc3b6b52c99ce4076aea0dbaa24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 52c | 7,196$3,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,741.99 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 48c | 6,250$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,249.99 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 74c | 6,199$4,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599.24 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 29c | 4,838$1,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,424.01 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 17c | 455.54$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 200 | 22.5%45 W · 155 L | -13.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 39c | 379.76$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.7 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 347.48$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.15 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 44c | 274.59$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.07 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…0574backed Under | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0580…f78bbacked Under | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 132 | 47.7%63 W · 69 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4e…2564backed Under | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4658backed Over | 67c | 107.46$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 66 | 68.2%45 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…e90dbacked Over | 58c | 90.54$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…f7aebacked Over | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 48 | 85.4%41 W · 7 L | +8.5wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 48c | 63.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 270 | 31.5%85 W · 185 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 52c | 48.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 162 | 66%107 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Under | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…f271backed Under | 36c | 30.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 36c | 29.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 134 | 57.5%77 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 78c | 18.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Universidad Central de Venezuela FC vs. Independiente del Valle: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Independiente del Valle (-1.5)Universidad Central de Venezuela FC won
- Spread: Independiente del Valle (-2.5)Universidad Central de Venezuela FC won
- Universidad Central de Venezuela FC vs. Independiente del Valle: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Universidad Central de Venezuela FC vs. Independiente del Valle: O/U 2.5Under won
- Universidad Central de Venezuela FC vs. Independiente del Valle: O/U 3.5Under won
- Universidad Central de Venezuela FC vs. Independiente del Valle: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.