Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf41ef3200785caf85f8077b12d451da10c53e12c8845e583238671bb7b726f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Team Tidebound, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,360
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Team Tidebound | 22c | 18,077$4,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,050 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora | 71c | 7,109$5,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,083.51 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…5695backed Team Tidebound | 50c | 6,230$3,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,126.51 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Aurora | 67c | 4,521$3,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,507.13 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Aurora | 58c | 4,198$2,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,756.01 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…e310backed Aurora | 51c | 2,041$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.09 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Aurora | 76c | 2,012$1,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.07 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa157…8641backed Team Tidebound | 10c | 1,257$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Team Tidebound | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00ce…3f01backed Team Tidebound | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb30…302abacked Team Tidebound | 48c | 894.72$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.77 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Aurora | 59c | 541.41$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.91 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b5…f95bbacked Aurora | 55c | 497.95$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.04 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Aurora | 52c | 411.37$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.46 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Team Tidebound | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…089bbacked Aurora | 75c | 375.86$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.16 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…c2c2backed Aurora | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Team Tidebound | 47c | 97.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…ea96backed Aurora | 59c | 90.61$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8105…955abacked Aurora | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Aurora | 57c | 61.54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…41edbacked Team Tidebound | 41c | 48.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…272cbacked Team Tidebound | 42c | 48.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf532…0f70backed Aurora | 59c | 34.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs Aurora - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs Aurora (BO3)Team Tidebound won
- Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerTeam Tidebound won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.