TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Tideboundof Team Tidebound, Aurora
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$57,625
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$67,048

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,625 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Tidebound49c6,684$3,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,431.31,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Aurora44c6,051$2,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,644.842,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb569…5695backed Team Tidebound40c5,927$2,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,581.6419047.9%91 W · 99 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Aurora44c5,604$2,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,486.6914947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fbe…7d07backed Team Tidebound65c4,667$3,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,649.1125444.5%113 W · 141 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Aurora47c3,821$1,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,812.8134146.6%159 W · 182 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed Aurora67c3,145$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10048954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Tidebound52c2,907$1,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,402.5189749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3db3…932fbacked Aurora44c2,724$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20016149.7%80 W · 81 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72ab…edaabacked Aurora1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20200%0 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed Aurora60c1,966$1,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,179.4815345.8%70 W · 83 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb30…302abacked Aurora47c1,600$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75810451%53 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8664…9981backed Team Tidebound48c1,592$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.091747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf457…d1a6backed Aurora35c1,429$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50012459.7%74 W · 50 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Team Tidebound58c1,200$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.2459250.5%299 W · 293 L-20.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0caf…91adbacked Team Tidebound69c1,076$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.557750.6%39 W · 38 L-9.7wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Aurora48c1,050$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.21,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa0…fbbdbacked Aurora2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20190%0 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d83…b76bbacked Aurora7c856.5$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.13219.5%2 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-24.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d9d…e6c3backed Aurora59c637.95$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3741957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cc7…b90dbacked Team Tidebound33c600$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc7c…d9d7backed Aurora5c517.8$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.079750.5%49 W · 48 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb116…940abacked Aurora47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2358950.6%45 W · 44 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-15.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4592…bab3backed Aurora6c433.33$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb26c…46ddbacked Team Tidebound48c418.15$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.158239%32 W · 50 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x073a…6f98backed Aurora55c407.28$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.3320361.6%125 W · 78 L+22.0wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9f7c…5a30backed Aurora11c386.36$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.59544.2%42 W · 53 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Aurora61c356$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.1619147.6%91 W · 100 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x763d…d0f2backed Aurora37c272$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed Aurora15c209.73$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4654445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85df…9124backed Aurora13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-70.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29f9…e310backed Aurora58c196.48$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.8512256.6%69 W · 53 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x211b…78aebacked Team Tidebound43c192.79$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.29616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-61.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0953…91b9backed Team Tidebound51c148.7$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.171442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-22.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfbb…55b0backed Team Tidebound70c142.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.862941.4%12 W · 17 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-16.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f04…5fc4backed Aurora71c140.74$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9331545.4%143 W · 172 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Team Tidebound62c135.12$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.6970236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9a5…c602backed Aurora23c133.07$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.664932.7%16 W · 33 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8105…955abacked Team Tidebound25c126.64$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.981758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed Aurora13c123.08$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1634443.9%151 W · 193 L-0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d32…fe50backed Aurora12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Team Tidebound44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5610560%63 W · 42 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb82b…3a09backed Aurora73c100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7314948.3%72 W · 77 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a1e…c2eabacked Aurora52c99.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.494540%18 W · 27 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-25.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Team Tidebound33c99.96$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6864123.4%150 W · 491 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Aurora35c80$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2826958.7%158 W · 111 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Team Tidebound70c66.82$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0545061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6e1…99f7backed Aurora32c62.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.25650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9de0…d8b7backed Aurora34c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.24367.4%29 W · 14 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbace…fdf1backed Aurora47c55.68$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cf3…50d9backed Team Tidebound44c54.55$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.557936.7%29 W · 50 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1b41…2c02backed Aurora48c44.73$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4772637.5%272 W · 454 L+3.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbac5…27d0backed Aurora65c30.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201566.7%10 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe649…8aa8backed Aurora65c30.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.651154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick64cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ae2…47fdbacked Aurora55c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.52250%11 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed Aurora51c20.41$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4149133.6%165 W · 326 L+1.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5c1…f0d2backed Aurora56c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.21266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb382…c498backed Team Tidebound62c17.06$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.487159.2%42 W · 29 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.