Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe64372a660b386a54fa1d26957ac8882248713d56dba85ea765361f41833f12a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Tideboundof Team Tidebound, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Tidebound | 49c | 6,684$3,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,431.3 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora | 44c | 6,051$2,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,644.84 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…5695backed Team Tidebound | 40c | 5,927$2,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,581.64 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Aurora | 44c | 5,604$2,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,486.69 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…7d07backed Team Tidebound | 65c | 4,667$3,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,649.11 | 254 | 44.5%113 W · 141 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Aurora | 47c | 3,821$1,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,812.81 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c2…c023backed Aurora | 67c | 3,145$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 489 | 54.6%267 W · 222 L | +23.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Tidebound | 52c | 2,907$1,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,402.51 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…932fbacked Aurora | 44c | 2,724$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 161 | 49.7%80 W · 81 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…edaabacked Aurora | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00ce…3f01backed Aurora | 60c | 1,966$1,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.48 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb30…302abacked Aurora | 47c | 1,600$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8664…9981backed Team Tidebound | 48c | 1,592$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.09 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf457…d1a6backed Aurora | 35c | 1,429$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Team Tidebound | 58c | 1,200$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.24 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…91adbacked Team Tidebound | 69c | 1,076$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.55 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Aurora | 48c | 1,050$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.2 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa0…fbbdbacked Aurora | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d83…b76bbacked Aurora | 7c | 856.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.13 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…e6c3backed Aurora | 59c | 637.95$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Team Tidebound | 33c | 600$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…d9d7backed Aurora | 5c | 517.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb116…940abacked Aurora | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4592…bab3backed Aurora | 6c | 433.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…46ddbacked Team Tidebound | 48c | 418.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.15 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Aurora | 55c | 407.28$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.33 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7c…5a30backed Aurora | 11c | 386.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 95 | 44.2%42 W · 53 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…55e8backed Aurora | 61c | 356$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.16 | 191 | 47.6%91 W · 100 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x763d…d0f2backed Aurora | 37c | 272$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Aurora | 15c | 209.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…9124backed Aurora | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…e310backed Aurora | 58c | 196.48$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.85 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x211b…78aebacked Team Tidebound | 43c | 192.79$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0953…91b9backed Team Tidebound | 51c | 148.7$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.17 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbb…55b0backed Team Tidebound | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Aurora | 71c | 140.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.93 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Team Tidebound | 62c | 135.12$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed Aurora | 23c | 133.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8105…955abacked Team Tidebound | 25c | 126.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.98 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Aurora | 13c | 123.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d32…fe50backed Aurora | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Team Tidebound | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Aurora | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…c2eabacked Aurora | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Team Tidebound | 33c | 99.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.68 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Aurora | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 269 | 58.7%158 W · 111 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Team Tidebound | 70c | 66.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e1…99f7backed Aurora | 32c | 62.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de0…d8b7backed Aurora | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbace…fdf1backed Aurora | 47c | 55.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Team Tidebound | 44c | 54.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Aurora | 48c | 44.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac5…27d0backed Aurora | 65c | 30.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…8aa8backed Aurora | 65c | 30.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae2…47fdbacked Aurora | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Aurora | 51c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c1…f0d2backed Aurora | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb382…c498backed Team Tidebound | 62c | 17.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs Aurora - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs Aurora (BO3)Team Tidebound won
- Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs Aurora - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.