Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on January 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf44ef76bf152103f5e20831cd494c4f3d2c9980e71c8438277b6a1915d7af10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa83b…5001backed Yes | 78c | 277.14$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e42…9ca9backed No | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 76c | 143.26$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaff8…434fbacked No | 35c | 137.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 24c | 101.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1584…71b6backed No | 12c | 90.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 43c | 86.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9402…e673backed No | 38c | 84.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 24c | 80.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 19c | 79.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…1d5abacked Yes | 75c | 71.8$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 21c | 64.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb40…c647backed Yes | 73c | 62.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 27c | 59.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 21c | 52.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0f…2458backed No | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 41c | 48.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 51c | 45.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…0a36backed No | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba9…5511backed Yes | 63c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed No | 37c | 30.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da9…cde9backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…5875backed Yes | 60c | 29.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…99b0backed Yes | 73c | 27.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc00e…1d79backed Yes | 76c | 25.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 58c | 25.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…10ebbacked Yes | 59c | 23.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbee…7b46backed Yes | 53c | 20.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7277…8bf4backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf115…6c5ebacked Yes | 64c | 18.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d38…824cbacked Yes | 73c | 18.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b8…c6d5backed Yes | 78c | 15.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4484…3e17backed Yes | 75c | 14.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on January 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on January 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on January 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.