Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Carstensz vs REKONIX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf5fea3c65cd09ed3d64ea086fded6f7b8f7a9b7cc886dacfa64efb08b70b92e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- REKONIXof Carstensz, REKONIX
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed Carstensz | 23c | 3,588$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.32 | 471 | 46.1%217 W · 254 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked REKONIX | 77c | 1,500$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 1,894 | 47.7%903 W · 991 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked REKONIX | 77c | 954.93$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.91 | 2,367 | 47.3%1,119 W · 1,248 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab12…764ebacked REKONIX | 77c | 700$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 270 | 60%162 W · 108 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed Carstensz | 23c | 319.01$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.78 | 410 | 55.1%226 W · 184 L | +39.6wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…f17fbacked Carstensz | 9c | 303$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked REKONIX | 76c | 214.52$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.13 | 1,691 | 41.4%700 W · 991 L | -40.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed REKONIX | 79c | 170.4$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed Carstensz | 25c | 122.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 515 | 50.9%262 W · 253 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked REKONIX | 76c | 61.32$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 1,443 | 48.7%703 W · 740 L | +29.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…50d7backed Carstensz | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed REKONIX | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf08…12a3backed REKONIX | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18c6…8e8fbacked REKONIX | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7593…e0a1backed REKONIX | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed REKONIX | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a2…1c37backed REKONIX | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e38…b4cbbacked REKONIX | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Carstensz vs REKONIX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Carstensz vs REKONIX - Game 1 WinnerREKONIX won
- Dota 2: Carstensz vs REKONIX - Game 2 WinnerREKONIX won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.