Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Carstensz vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e51962ec9b81db61bfa1e722d67ff7d088a2e64dbaf29a9b8e7d94f31731b02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- REKONIXof Carstensz, REKONIX
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1607…79bebacked Carstensz | 2c | 11,435$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.26 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Carstensz | 21c | 7,255$1,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,556.95 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked REKONIX | 69c | 2,040$1,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.2 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed Carstensz | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Carstensz | 2c | 1,875$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 104 | 0%0 W · 104 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…cd14backed Carstensz | 2c | 1,250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Carstensz | 2c | 1,250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 17.2%21 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab04…a00abacked Carstensz | 47c | 1,177$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.19 | 379 | 45.9%174 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Carstensz | 29c | 1,035$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.35 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked REKONIX | 71c | 932$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.14 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Carstensz | 32c | 921.02$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.88 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27fd…9187backed Carstensz | 17c | 845.43$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.9 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked REKONIX | 74c | 837.98$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.51 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…2d93backed Carstensz | 22c | 811.25$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.61 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Carstensz | 4c | 769$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed REKONIX | 52c | 747.84$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.29 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3a…fbfdbacked REKONIX | 70c | 714.28$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.28 | 508 | 50.8%258 W · 250 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d3…bab9backed REKONIX | 67c | 606$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.86 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed Carstensz | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 213 | 33.3%71 W · 142 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6aaa…e611backed REKONIX | 52c | 551.67$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +277.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…77dcbacked Carstensz | 41c | 455$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.75 | 292 | 40.4%118 W · 174 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed Carstensz | 10c | 378.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 359 | 48.2%173 W · 186 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb829…4f5ebacked Carstensz | 4c | 369$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 176 | 36.9%65 W · 111 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0580…f78bbacked Carstensz | 4c | 369$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 131 | 29.8%39 W · 92 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed REKONIX | 64c | 363.32$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.23 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked REKONIX | 77c | 349$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.04 | 143 | 43.4%62 W · 81 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…375cbacked Carstensz | 4c | 344.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Carstensz | 4c | 338$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 283 | 36.4%103 W · 180 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Carstensz | 26c | 330.96$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.33 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7900…3393backed Carstensz | 29c | 330.96$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.22 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a3…5857backed REKONIX | 72c | 322.36$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.58 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe3…ca9dbacked REKONIX | 62c | 258.4$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.4 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Carstensz | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 245 | 27.3%67 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked REKONIX | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Carstensz | 27c | 240.67$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.17 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed REKONIX | 53c | 234$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.8 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed REKONIX | 67c | 226$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.88 | 502 | 47.6%239 W · 263 L | +31.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed Carstensz | 45c | 223.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Carstensz | 12c | 210.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Carstensz | 26c | 202.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec17…5c42backed Carstensz | 14c | 185.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked REKONIX | 65c | 176.27$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.57 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3685…6d99backed REKONIX | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked REKONIX | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe350…e494backed Carstensz | 34c | 128.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed REKONIX | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed REKONIX | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x595c…3b03backed REKONIX | 63c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 108 | 52.8%57 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Carstensz | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed REKONIX | 73c | 52.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 656 | 47.3%310 W · 346 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Carstensz | 22c | 51.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed REKONIX | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2669…fa0dbacked REKONIX | 57c | 44.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked REKONIX | 71c | 38.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Carstensz | 46c | 38.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…50d7backed Carstensz | 64c | 29.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked REKONIX | 70c | 28.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a51…4ef6backed REKONIX | 61c | 26.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076e…73fabacked Carstensz | 39c | 25.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffa…7710backed REKONIX | 71c | 22.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e38…b4cbbacked REKONIX | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Carstensz vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Carstensz vs REKONIX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier PlayoffsREKONIX won
- Dota 2: Carstensz vs REKONIX - Game 1 WinnerREKONIX won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.