Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf8ac6fa1ffe2ea1b4fe37a024942c593d3f96ec82c3996a90ef13b6dde96c54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 64c | 300.26$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.52 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 40c | 187.04$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 144.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 138.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.56 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 9c | 135.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 120$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.49 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 30c | 105.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd293…a4e3backed Yes | 41c | 99.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.99 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 58c | 99.97$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 66c | 91.94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.57 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 41c | 82.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 60c | 80.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 38c | 78.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 68c | 68.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 67.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 23c | 66.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.14 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 36c | 55.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 52.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 21c | 50.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 39c | 49.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 39c | 47.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe961…fc41backed Yes | 36c | 47.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 46.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 55c | 43.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 61c | 39.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 43c | 39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 37.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…be1dbacked Yes | 31c | 36.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 82 | 18.3%15 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 71c | 34.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 59c | 33.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 79c | 31.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…99f9backed Yes | 35c | 28.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 40c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 63c | 25.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 62c | 24.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed No | 67c | 23.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 68c | 21.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 67c | 16.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C or higher on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.