Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfb2b35c92f621681e002365e62ad41b211c2a86d85a43fa65cce0ae0d6326fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 47c | 530.31$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 340.23$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 59c | 265.72$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.62 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 49c | 202.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.48 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 7c | 199.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 115.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 70c | 114.1$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.63 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 31c | 102.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.43 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 25c | 101.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 101.64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 30c | 100.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.16 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…9030backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 44c | 90.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.42 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 29c | 84.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.91 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 38c | 70$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.64 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 33c | 52.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…19eabacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 26c | 49.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 62c | 49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 45.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54f…977cbacked No | 70c | 44.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 68c | 40.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 70c | 39.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed No | 37c | 37.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 36.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 35c | 35.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 30c | 34.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…ff74backed No | 65c | 30.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5390…1649backed No | 71c | 28.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…8809backed Yes | 56c | 28.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 27.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 68c | 22.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 63c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 63c | 21.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 70c | 21.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 69c | 21.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 68c | 20.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 72c | 19.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 72c | 17.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 70c | 16.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 67°F or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 86°F or higher on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.