Mls · resolved market
Sporting Kansas City vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfd0dc480c1e66ad53940de34fdb38ba8231504e287c5ad5dcfc9340f66ac2d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,638
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,638 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 67c | 3,024$2,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.09 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 30c | 3,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 55c | 2,117$1,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949.41 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 38c | 1,175$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.97 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 42c | 1,078$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.34 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 38c | 603.46$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.17 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Under | 57c | 499$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.56 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7210…521fbacked Under | 64c | 426.83$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.83 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 22c | 300$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.65 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 71c | 232.89$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.1 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 68c | 161.6$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.71 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 30c | 151.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 27c | 150.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…994abacked Under | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 67c | 115$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 95.95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 65c | 85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed Over | 44c | 58.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked Over | 44c | 57.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 69c | 52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb435…b97cbacked Over | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 69c | 36.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sporting Kansas City vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 4.5this page
- Sporting Kansas City vs. New York Red Bulls: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 2.5Over won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-1.5)Sporting Kansas City won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-2.5)Sporting Kansas City won
- Spread: Sporting Kansas City (-1.5)New York Red Bulls won
- Spread: Sporting Kansas City (-2.5)New York Red Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.