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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on August 26?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,236
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,227

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,236 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x938d…8674backed Yes11c577.39$61 inWon+$516.2947033.6%158 W · 312 L+23.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed No72c410.99$298 inLost-$297.5240539.3%159 W · 246 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2edc…a207backed Yes24c306.79$72 inWon+$234.569929.3%29 W · 70 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-29.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x86d3…da78backed Yes26c291.47$75 inWon+$216.0628632.2%92 W · 194 L+13.6wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7772…c40abacked Yes15c264.4$39 inWon+$225.84617.4%8 W · 38 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No30c236.76$71 inLost-$70.894,44253.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L-17.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1703…1f9bbacked Yes12c191.56$23 inWon+$168.169712.4%12 W · 85 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+61%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes10c187.36$20 inWon+$167.843,06433.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L+13.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No43c153.89$66 inLost-$662,17653.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L+36.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes11c136.36$15 inWon+$121.3646736.8%172 W · 295 L+1.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes10c126.3$13 inWon+$113.671,85842.7%793 W · 1,065 L+50.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked Yes15c96.75$15 inWon+$82.1555942.6%238 W · 321 L+24.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2572…80dbbacked Yes75c90.97$68 inWon+$22.7419148.7%93 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes14c90.13$12 inWon+$77.9123847.9%114 W · 124 L+12.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No31c77.56$24 inLost-$24.046,90553.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L+422.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes31c69.42$21 inWon+$48.2192145.6%420 W · 501 L-29.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No43c63.57$27 inLost-$27.262,27456.7%1,289 W · 985 L+65.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No38c57.12$21 inLost-$21.472,22356.1%1,247 W · 976 L+54.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No80c56.27$45 inLost-$44.955,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes71c55.55$39 inWon+$16.0557654.3%313 W · 263 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No79c32$25 inLost-$25.285,19368.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L+70.8wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.