Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e050356a3ec6beb7cb28b3b17a2db79d6f13f7339bed5958eec253470bb7e21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 384.76$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.74 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 62c | 358.96$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.33 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 39c | 283.03$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.28 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 279.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 2,280 | 14.7%336 W · 1,944 L | +51.5wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 256.93$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 47c | 252.31$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.58 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 49c | 210.1$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.85 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 69c | 188.5$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 56c | 178.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.93 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 50c | 133$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.96 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…35d0backed No | 80c | 115.2$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 36c | 113.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.84 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 40c | 106.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 48c | 102.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 51c | 90.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 49c | 85.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 490 | 24.9%122 W · 368 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 50c | 80.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 60c | 79.86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 70.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 39c | 69.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 383 | 46.7%179 W · 204 L | +16.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 20c | 61.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 51c | 57.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 48c | 57.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 46c | 48.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 79c | 48.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 61c | 43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 1,196 | 50.8%608 W · 588 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 49c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 155 | 43.2%67 W · 88 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 52c | 39.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 61c | 39.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 45c | 38.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 53c | 37.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 202 | 55.4%112 W · 90 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 54c | 34.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 53c | 33.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 575 | 59.7%343 W · 232 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…adafbacked Yes | 46c | 31.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 71c | 30.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 47c | 29.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4868…a1c1backed Yes | 50c | 29.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 53c | 27.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 55c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 269 | 69.5%187 W · 82 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 60c | 26.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e1…4995backed Yes | 69c | 21.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1df…8155backed Yes | 76c | 21.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 69c | 20.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 189 | 52.4%99 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 61c | 16.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 215 | 34%73 W · 142 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on August 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.