NHL · resolved market
Spread: Sabres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfe701356857356021610a5ddb65db0337865cb74d706855ed6ec3825ec9ab0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabresof Sabres, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Sabres | 32c | 6,767$2,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,601.56 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…5432backed Kings | 68c | 3,900$2,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,652 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Kings | 68c | 3,773$2,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,565.3 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa558…1b44backed Sabres | 33c | 1,672$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.7 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Kings | 67c | 1,210$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.7 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Sabres | 33c | 921.99$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.24 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Sabres | 32c | 583$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.18 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Kings | 66c | 478$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.48 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Sabres | 31c | 382.86$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.2 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Sabres | 31c | 372.25$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.85 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Kings | 70c | 342.86$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Sabres | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 181 | 36.5%66 W · 115 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Kings | 68c | 312.29$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.36 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Kings | 28c | 223$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.38 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Kings | 70c | 213.82$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Kings | 68c | 157$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.76 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Kings | 67c | 148.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.69 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Kings | 69c | 119.33$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.34 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x486f…b325backed Kings | 69c | 119.33$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.34 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Sabres | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Sabres | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 210 | 42.4%89 W · 121 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0f…bbfebacked Kings | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Kings | 70c | 73.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Sabres | 66c | 66.93$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…071abacked Sabres | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…5b32backed Kings | 68c | 62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Kings | 68c | 57.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…95d8backed Kings | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Kings | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…bba8backed Sabres | 46c | 41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe829…f91cbacked Sabres | 32c | 40.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Kings | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 278 | 51.1%142 W · 136 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Kings | 69c | 30.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…d7e9backed Kings | 69c | 30.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…0859backed Kings | 69c | 28.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Kings | 70c | 28.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 196 | 52.6%103 W · 93 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Kings | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)this page
- Kings vs. SabresSabres won
- Kings vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kings vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.