Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdff2cae4859e69c2a364e99ee3e53b24c86405c235410434b212f17a1b231415
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,173
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,173 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 278.05$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 27c | 232.16$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.69 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…a457backed Yes | 18c | 137.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 77c | 134.09$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 74c | 112.27$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…eea9backed No | 79c | 104.98$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 25c | 102.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 23c | 93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…8378backed Yes | 33c | 73.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 22c | 68.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 61.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5046…a7e5backed Yes | 24c | 58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 56.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 46.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 41.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 76c | 41.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 67c | 32.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 31.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 26.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 20.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 76c | 18.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 79c | 14.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93f9…3e96backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…1d33backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.