Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdff322e71e7f9dff32da4e6b1354ff84fc383f68765b49ab7bcfe7059cc242d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Wildcatsof Arizona Wildcats, Iowa State Cyclones
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,700
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,700 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e16…0127backed Arizona Wildcats | 46c | 3,706$1,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,001.51 | 137 | 46.7%64 W · 73 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 54c | 3,523$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,899.62 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…b04bbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 56c | 701.45$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.81 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…eb22backed Arizona Wildcats | 44c | 700$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 55c | 665.99$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.52 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Arizona Wildcats | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Arizona Wildcats | 45c | 485.63$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.55 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Wildcats | 52c | 236.93$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.33 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59a8…eb4ebacked Iowa State Cyclones | 57c | 234.81$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.84 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Iowa State Cyclones | 56c | 230.14$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.88 | 308 | 53.2%164 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…29dcbacked Arizona Wildcats | 44c | 229.32$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.42 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Arizona Wildcats | 44c | 181.82$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.82 | 621 | 40.4%251 W · 370 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Arizona Wildcats | 44c | 134.82$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Arizona Wildcats | 44c | 112.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.09 | 316 | 47.8%151 W · 165 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Iowa State Cyclones | 49c | 109.07$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 56c | 99.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.95 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Arizona Wildcats | 38c | 80.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 505 | 48.9%247 W · 258 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b15…f827backed Iowa State Cyclones | 62c | 79.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa23c…ae92backed Arizona Wildcats | 51c | 59.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -7.1wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…a219backed Arizona Wildcats | 51c | 58.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…cbe2backed Iowa State Cyclones | 58c | 56.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Iowa State Cyclones | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 576 | 55%317 W · 259 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Iowa State Cyclones | 59c | 28.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 139 | 56.8%79 W · 60 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…1207backed Iowa State Cyclones | 56c | 26.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x406d…5298backed Iowa State Cyclones | 58c | 25.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Arizona Wildcats | 46c | 25.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-8.5)this page
- Iowa State Cyclones vs. Arizona WildcatsArizona Wildcats won
- Iowa State Cyclones vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 147.5Under won
- Iowa State Cyclones vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 149.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-6.5)Arizona Wildcats won
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-7.5)Arizona Wildcats won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.