Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b858653d6a92d602d6ff4901bc1517a6a8944175d443e598f72fe970eb54f07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Wildcatsof Arizona Wildcats, Iowa State Cyclones
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1dc8…da92backed Iowa State Cyclones | 54c | 10,281$5,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,562.1 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Arizona Wildcats | 47c | 4,279$2,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,252.9 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf606…440abacked Arizona Wildcats | 48c | 3,569$1,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,855.65 | 183 | 49.2%90 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Wildcats | 54c | 3,322$1,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,539.73 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Arizona Wildcats | 47c | 3,279$1,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,735 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Iowa State Cyclones | 52c | 2,500$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Arizona Wildcats | 47c | 2,110$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.54 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…b04bbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 53c | 2,070$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.4 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Iowa State Cyclones | 52c | 1,872$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.34 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Arizona Wildcats | 45c | 1,725$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$948.36 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e6…1dc1backed Iowa State Cyclones | 54c | 1,134$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.5 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…4a51backed Arizona Wildcats | 48c | 1,095$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.15 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…0523backed Iowa State Cyclones | 52c | 999.98$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.99 | 167 | 55.7%93 W · 74 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 51c | 999.49$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.74 | 279 | 47.3%132 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Iowa State Cyclones | 52c | 762.51$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.51 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d2…ad14backed Iowa State Cyclones | 53c | 748.14$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.51 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Arizona Wildcats | 49c | 708.04$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.1 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…eb22backed Arizona Wildcats | 48c | 700$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Iowa State Cyclones | 53c | 564.23$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.8 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -6.1wins | -0.26per pick | 57cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce1…b62cbacked Arizona Wildcats | 49c | 406.19$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.94 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Arizona Wildcats | 45c | 380$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.95 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Arizona Wildcats | 51c | 361.01$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.9 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Iowa State Cyclones | 52c | 289.99$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.8 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0706…6ffebacked Iowa State Cyclones | 53c | 283.79$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.41 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Arizona Wildcats | 47c | 252.3$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.72 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Iowa State Cyclones | 52c | 239.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.79 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Arizona Wildcats | 55c | 218.18$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.75 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Iowa State Cyclones | 53c | 215.09$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 308 | 53.2%164 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c58…beb0backed Arizona Wildcats | 47c | 210.91$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70a…6de8backed Arizona Wildcats | 46c | 210.17$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.34 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b58…695dbacked Arizona Wildcats | 45c | 208.8$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.13 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +160.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2442…0c2bbacked Arizona Wildcats | 48c | 206.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.39 | 140 | 51.4%72 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Iowa State Cyclones | 51c | 205.24$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.58 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Arizona Wildcats | 51c | 203.21$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.57 | 237 | 54.9%130 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 53c | 198.26$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.08 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…df76backed Arizona Wildcats | 52c | 190.12$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…fec0backed Arizona Wildcats | 45c | 189.08$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 249 | 51.8%129 W · 120 L | +19.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Arizona Wildcats | 48c | 125.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.11 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7784…50bbbacked Arizona Wildcats | 51c | 123.62$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Arizona Wildcats | 49c | 114.48$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.38 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d3…2d0fbacked Arizona Wildcats | 48c | 105.96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 49c | 101.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 356 | 46.6%166 W · 190 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…2687backed Arizona Wildcats | 49c | 101.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Iowa State Cyclones | 53c | 94.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Arizona Wildcats | 47c | 85.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Arizona Wildcats | 48c | 82.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 316 | 47.8%151 W · 165 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x026c…8d76backed Iowa State Cyclones | 52c | 76.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Arizona Wildcats | 45c | 75.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198c…6a94backed Iowa State Cyclones | 53c | 72.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 188 | 46.8%88 W · 100 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Iowa State Cyclones | 30c | 70.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1e…5a2abacked Iowa State Cyclones | 53c | 67.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Iowa State Cyclones | 49c | 66.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +11.5wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Arizona Wildcats | 48c | 61.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 211 | 52.1%110 W · 101 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Arizona Wildcats | 49c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5542…01cebacked Arizona Wildcats | 49c | 53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +35%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93e3…e590backed Arizona Wildcats | 45c | 52.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -9.9wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Iowa State Cyclones | 65c | 49.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 139 | 56.8%79 W · 60 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e2…2ed0backed Arizona Wildcats | 48c | 46.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Arizona Wildcats | 48c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dc…ab58backed Arizona Wildcats | 51c | 43.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7473…948dbacked Arizona Wildcats | 47c | 41.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Arizona Wildcats | 48c | 41.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4662…1d65backed Iowa State Cyclones | 49c | 41.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce7…7cfabacked Iowa State Cyclones | 49c | 39.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Iowa State Cyclones | 52c | 32.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 349 | 52.1%182 W · 167 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89bc…a463backed Arizona Wildcats | 53c | 31.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Arizona Wildcats | 42c | 31.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Arizona Wildcats | 48c | 28.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 612 | 44.9%275 W · 337 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Arizona Wildcats | 48c | 28.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Iowa State Cyclones | 47c | 26.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…aa37backed Arizona Wildcats | 45c | 25.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaaed…8479backed Iowa State Cyclones | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ada…b8a0backed Iowa State Cyclones | 53c | 19.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…54f0backed Arizona Wildcats | 53c | 19.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Arizona Wildcats | 69c | 14.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-7.5)this page
- Iowa State Cyclones vs. Arizona WildcatsArizona Wildcats won
- Iowa State Cyclones vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 147.5Under won
- Iowa State Cyclones vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 149.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-6.5)Arizona Wildcats won
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-8.5)Arizona Wildcats won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.