Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe002ed384dc40810797eb8c00c22e2542e90fbb88a3f41bc2a0708040ca1b9e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 25c | 279.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.44 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 79c | 226.9$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 206.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 189.05$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.15 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 187.9$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 18c | 184.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 19c | 152.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 151.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 22c | 124.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 79c | 114.37$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 94.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 16c | 69.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 16c | 63.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 22c | 62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 59.46$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…5749backed Yes | 32c | 40.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497f…0331backed No | 71c | 40.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 63cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 78c | 34.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4920…2b87backed No | 79c | 32.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 80c | 29.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2c…5890backed No | 74c | 25.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 79c | 23.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 76c | 19.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 17.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 16.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 80c | 14.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.