Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0477ac700d475ca1c7a086e62c95ab481efd6988fe1338e194efb1c62102d4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,674 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 4c | 2,533$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.62 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b57…52c4backed Yes | 2c | 1,515$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 10c | 1,212$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.8 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 21c | 1,159$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.51 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 970.97$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad73…2eddbacked Yes | 9c | 873.06$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.45 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a3…fa3cbacked Yes | 2c | 853.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 18c | 612.83$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.23 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 10c | 562.11$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 3c | 523.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 9c | 496.16$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f0…3196backed Yes | 5c | 478$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 438$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 12c | 390.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 4c | 354.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 10c | 285.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 5c | 236.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 7c | 227.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 7c | 214.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9198…f83ebacked Yes | 9c | 208.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 11c | 196.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 6c | 185.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 42c | 182.95$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.01 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 7c | 176.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d4…0ecdbacked Yes | 8c | 132.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 16c | 102.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…3a21backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3712…f40ebacked Yes | 35c | 71.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 73c | 69.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.