Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e244a397ca887547dc9db35fc7ec736b00f9b36dca3f893927b382e3c13e58b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,422 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 13c | 1,169$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.65 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 33c | 990.76$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.42 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…2dafbacked Yes | 63c | 778.33$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.21 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9715…6f82backed No | 47c | 512.99$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.41 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 8c | 420$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77aa…689fbacked Yes | 48c | 358.5$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked No | 47c | 299.99$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.35 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 40c | 277.7$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 34c | 273.55$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.96 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357f…b6c5backed Yes | 76c | 267.18$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.27 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 40c | 246.62$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.61 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 32c | 220.19$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.84 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 24c | 202.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.24 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc57…ce71backed No | 35c | 188.3$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.3 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +6.1wins | +0.34per pick | 38cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 37c | 185.7$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.16 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked Yes | 52c | 165.52$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.56 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 28c | 164.26$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.37 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 64c | 155.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 40c | 139.45$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.33 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 36c | 135$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.15 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 41c | 134.12$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 77c | 129.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 28c | 123.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.04 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9192…92acbacked No | 39c | 120$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 61c | 113.39$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 34c | 109.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.81 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x884f…c132backed Yes | 52c | 107.37$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed No | 48c | 105.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.25 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 31c | 103.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.41 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 64c | 102.83$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.17 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 29c | 101.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.89 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed No | 26c | 99.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.46 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x483d…65f2backed No | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.71 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 78c | 87.83$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.33 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 53c | 87.48$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 86.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 31c | 86.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 65c | 85.38$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11dc…fac5backed No | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa303…5ba1backed Yes | 68c | 76.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 63cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 28c | 68.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.54 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed No | 52c | 68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked Yes | 77c | 64.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 29c | 64.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…7935backed No | 29c | 62.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 19c | 62.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…53d7backed Yes | 61c | 58.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…fe58backed Yes | 77c | 58.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…0a2abacked Yes | 52c | 57.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258d…4fd6backed Yes | 56c | 56.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc893…c015backed Yes | 54c | 56.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed No | 33c | 56.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed No | 78c | 56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 45c | 52.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 56c | 52.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f4…5944backed No | 34c | 52.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 32c | 51.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 65c | 50.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 52c | 48.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45bc…1f69backed Yes | 57c | 46.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb000…e8fabacked No | 26c | 46.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed Yes | 55c | 46.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 70c | 43.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 61c | 42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 70c | 41.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa56d…3053backed Yes | 78c | 39.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…84d5backed Yes | 71c | 38.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 97 | 78.4%76 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 55c | 37.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x316c…0194backed No | 72c | 36.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +6.1wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x95aa…fe61backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa7…207abacked Yes | 45c | 36.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 55c | 35.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed No | 42c | 35.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 67c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 48c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…96f4backed Yes | 57c | 34.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -10.9wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 59c | 34.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 72c | 33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…507abacked Yes | 76c | 32.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e84…d064backed No | 39c | 30.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4d…507fbacked Yes | 44c | 30.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…b54abacked Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd30f…d81cbacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 46c | 29.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcf…503fbacked Yes | 48c | 28.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78d1…f0f1backed Yes | 66c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe68c…779dbacked Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd2…ab94backed Yes | 67c | 26.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.