TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,405

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,405 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x100a…c6cebacked No1c3,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212554.3%11 W · 244 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+221.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc53d…4346backed No1c1,391$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes60c1,257$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.2295933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd98d…1179backed Yes50c1,201$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.7623231%72 W · 160 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1085330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No13c732.77$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4261821.2%131 W · 487 L-34.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5220…901dbacked No14c714.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick46cpaid-57.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No12c575.9$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.111,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No8c540.59$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.759742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes22c458.01$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.9917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes76c448.79$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.4954143.1%233 W · 308 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes64c423.64$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.096,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf845…7c31backed No26c387.36$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.288957.3%51 W · 38 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf4cc…a95dbacked No38c260.26$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987081.4%57 W · 13 L+10.1wins+0.14per pick67cpaid+26.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes28c252.06$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.797638.2%29 W · 47 L-8.0wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-14.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x919d…f1b1backed No49c246.14$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.5410051%51 W · 49 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+29.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked No13c228.28$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.918316.4%30 W · 153 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd714…8240backed No40c224.66$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes46c221.99$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.3920144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No22c220.97$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.386050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No13c212$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6258349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes17c197.2$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.378,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No33c187.78$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No73c172.4$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.2591967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No19c165.3$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.111,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No72c158.16$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.863,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No11c156.69$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0454037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No36c152.09$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.091,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No74c145.85$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.621,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed No8c137.35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6534651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes53c130$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.3816144.1%71 W · 90 L+14.3wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+36.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No18c118.43$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.687,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x04b5…64d5backed Yes79c112.82$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.471163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick69cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes66c112.67$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.231,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes11c100$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f98…e397backed No73c99.61$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.0533154.4%180 W · 151 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6372…4a25backed No75c96.08$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.3441070.5%289 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No57c94.1$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.491,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes40c87.77$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.7750648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf57d…f322backed Yes35c86.58$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.5825519.2%49 W · 206 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11dc…fac5backed Yes29c80$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.483435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Yes28c78.55$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2213523%31 W · 104 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3319…977abacked Yes20c75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6026426.9%71 W · 193 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes34c73.51$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.7621547.4%102 W · 113 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes21c73.21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.82,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e53…b65ebacked No28c71.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes29c69.66$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.6655942.6%238 W · 321 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc474…d697backed Yes35c67.5$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.611816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-52.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No27c66.66$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.331,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes77c63.99$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6734067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x83fe…23d9backed No73c62.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0132760.6%198 W · 129 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fbc…4105backed Yes21c59.7$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.1633726.4%89 W · 248 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes44c59.69$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.515334%18 W · 35 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x387c…8622backed Yes36c56.08$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.912642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x720a…0a49backed No74c53.18$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5311878.8%93 W · 25 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick71cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes26c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379520%19 W · 76 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98f7…a036backed Yes33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.493630.6%11 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-36.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes22c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3949547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe11d…44ecbacked No41c48.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2018041.7%75 W · 105 L-0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No73c45.23$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.042,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x299a…9e6fbacked Yes23c45$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.653033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11a4…bba6backed No34c44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8812223%28 W · 94 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbc0…1843backed No43c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1714372%103 W · 40 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No78c38.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1952245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No73c38.63$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.075,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes63c38.47$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.381,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x98f0…8ebebacked No28c37.9$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.46450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No45c34.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6457232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No75c33.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.991,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdda…310cbacked Yes35c32.53$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.26737.3%25 W · 42 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2de…8209backed Yes62c32.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.513171%22 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick72cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No73c32.3$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.637,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed No63c31.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2049941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No61c31.53$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.234,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ef3…ac46backed No66c30.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019449%95 W · 99 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ea4…4990backed No60c29.34$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.484228.6%12 W · 30 L-7.5wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-54.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x73da…aa5fbacked No72c27.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0b9…3377backed No74c27.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1414071.4%100 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick69cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc053…4cccbacked Yes40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdb5…b3cfbacked No68c23.83$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.322326.1%6 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-52.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e84…d064backed No44c23.23$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.244163.4%26 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No72c22.22$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1676371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca23…6080backed No75c20.15$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.091070%7 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick73cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2044…2fc5backed No73c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.652055%11 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick64cpaid+8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes66c19.24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6361659.3%365 W · 251 L+68.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc4b9…b47fbacked No76c18.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.518048.8%39 W · 41 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4701…ca83backed No74c18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3216456.7%93 W · 71 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed5b…a76abacked Yes61c17$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6319047.4%90 W · 100 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x98c4…5d90backed No71c15.76$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.194161%25 W · 16 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick71cpaid-18.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9853…2f25backed No78c15.48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.016563.1%41 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd05…0e6ebacked No71c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.697767.5%52 W · 25 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6077…8a56backed No80c12.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010956.9%62 W · 47 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.