Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -5°C on March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0557ac1d19be0962a5ae708fdbe8a2447309dcab1ffbf652d6ce7844b72f822
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 3c | 700$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 31c | 296.98$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.35 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 23c | 275.68$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.31 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 22c | 187.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 170.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 15c | 169$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…eb33backed No | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 147.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 70c | 140$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 125.95$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cda…3d8abacked No | 80c | 125.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…ce8fbacked Yes | 27c | 117.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402f…19a4backed Yes | 37c | 110.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 21cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 16c | 104.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…b68fbacked Yes | 24c | 90.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 20c | 87.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 23c | 86.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 29c | 80.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 75c | 80.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 31c | 76.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 63.09$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 28c | 57.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 32c | 56.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc83f…f2d7backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 19cpaid | +95.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 46.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 76c | 42.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 27c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 71c | 34.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 76c | 32.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98c4…5d90backed No | 77c | 31.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 25.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…a48ebacked No | 69c | 20.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 77 | 64.9%50 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 80c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…678cbacked No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 77c | 14.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -5°C on March 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -11°C or below on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C or higher on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -6°C on March 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -7°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -8°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -9°C on March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.