Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -6°C on March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c877565ab1fc53299124a81b3f6a3ab6be28b90ee792791c731b331cd810661
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 16c | 841.73$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.91 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed No | 26c | 841.29$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.3 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 68c | 554.22$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.68 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 40c | 509.4$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.87 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 70c | 452.92$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.64 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 25c | 304.4$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.53 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 69c | 286.08$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.35 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 65c | 269.88$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.77 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 224.11$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 221.5$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.13 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 30c | 182.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 68c | 175.34$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.75 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 20c | 158.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 74c | 154.95$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.07 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9727…8248backed Yes | 67c | 150.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 148.46$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.38 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 27c | 121.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.36 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…b68fbacked Yes | 28c | 93.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.91 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 23c | 93.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 68c | 81$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 75c | 79.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.58 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes | 27c | 70.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.89 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…ce8fbacked Yes | 30c | 67.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.02 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 30c | 56.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 37c | 51.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 34c | 48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 72c | 47.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 57c | 45.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 42.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 60c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 47c | 37.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 36.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 40c | 30.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac10…35d3backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…ee01backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 80 | 72.5%58 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 58c | 25.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 67c | 23.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 67c | 22.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…c8febacked Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…3f6cbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 65c | 16.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 15.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -6°C on March 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -11°C or below on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C or higher on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -5°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -7°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -8°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -9°C on March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.