Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe08477df5bcf79e21908c723ce9bdfd6d2dd99f1713f58b69ff0bc42ea7fae6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,928
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,928 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 1,003$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 23c | 208.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 142$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.13 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 70c | 135$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 38c | 132.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 124$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x565e…875dbacked No | 76c | 110.71$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +7.0wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7f15…52f1backed No | 63c | 110$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2e5abacked Yes | 24c | 104.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Yes | 40c | 100.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…3933backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc301…6760backed Yes | 41c | 95.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 23c | 70.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x41a4…4187backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 66c | 40.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8f…0734backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…9340backed No | 61c | 36.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9b…5e0dbacked Yes | 34c | 35.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 38c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 56c | 32.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e5…9749backed No | 62c | 32.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4bd…c685backed Yes | 40c | 31.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…57c8backed No | 79c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ed…ac9cbacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +72%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…9506backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 17.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c7…100cbacked No | 77c | 16.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?this page
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.