Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb4f3bfd328c322192763ec62cf763e33dd3ef0d53a5dc497ba9fbfbf8c6f80f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,002
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,002 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x565e…875dbacked Yes | 51c | 902.06$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.71 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +7.0wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 34c | 858.09$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.44 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6995…c072backed Yes | 62c | 722.14$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.14 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked No | 62c | 519.55$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa04…66e7backed Yes | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f61…8554backed No | 45c | 397.98$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.52 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 52c | 364.76$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.52 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5904…940fbacked No | 46c | 337.6$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…e122backed Yes | 47c | 319.99$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.29 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x722c…515fbacked No | 64c | 274.27$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 13c | 219.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.35 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 22c | 208.74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 42c | 198.29$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.13 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 56c | 185.2$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.83 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 41c | 160.35$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.58 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8d…fa5dbacked Yes | 43c | 147.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.34 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02d1…4210backed Yes | 51c | 147.26$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.58 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 38c | 135$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed No | 58c | 132.9$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.59 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 16c | 103.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.31 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae20…f1cfbacked Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f15…52f1backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91e5…0947backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…7ff5backed No | 46c | 97.08$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…adbebacked No | 56c | 88.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1438…c697backed Yes | 78c | 77.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 45c | 72.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 40c | 67.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb326…d18bbacked No | 46c | 65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 42c | 62.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 22c | 61.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 51c | 52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 31c | 50.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…70b1backed No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 42.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ed…ac9cbacked Yes | 49c | 41.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +72%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c7…100cbacked Yes | 65c | 40.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 52c | 38.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…ab1cbacked No | 61c | 38.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…57c8backed Yes | 67c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1004…58ecbacked Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2f…2dedbacked Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…9340backed Yes | 45c | 25.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…b64dbacked No | 60c | 22.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…6b36backed No | 59c | 18.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27a5…8d62backed No | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?this page
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.