Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe09904ac1bd1ce5c4c246b1b761a0149055a4777222edbaf17ff4485dc4215c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BetBoom Teamof BetBoom Team, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,237 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere | 48c | 413.75$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.84 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4c…e430backed BetBoom Team | 54c | 405.75$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.07 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…d6e6backed BetBoom Team | 32c | 206.47$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.4 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Natus Vincere | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860e…a06dbacked BetBoom Team | 39c | 192.31$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.31 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Natus Vincere | 61c | 181.24$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.56 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc26c…ffddbacked Natus Vincere | 49c | 85.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Natus Vincere | 58c | 78.05$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…e05fbacked BetBoom Team | 51c | 53.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 412 | 42.2%174 W · 238 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda6…6ae0backed BetBoom Team | 39c | 44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c0…23d8backed BetBoom Team | 47c | 42.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 239 | 57.3%137 W · 102 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…022dbacked Natus Vincere | 43c | 28.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked BetBoom Team | 55c | 20.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StageBetBoom Team won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 WinnerBetBoom Team won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 WinnerBetBoom Team won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.