TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BetBoom Teamof Natus Vincere, BetBoom Team
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$317,057

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $317,057 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 269 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x66fb…9f72backed BetBoom Team63c29,019$18,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,819.4854556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf801…901cbacked Natus Vincere37c12,567$4,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,613.063834.2%13 W · 25 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x55af…0715backed BetBoom Team67c10,067$6,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,335.73164.5%20 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed Natus Vincere11c9,233$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025.03449.1%4 W · 40 L-0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-81.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Natus Vincere15c8,693$1,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,342.021,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed Natus Vincere41c8,468$3,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,460.9314840.5%60 W · 88 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked BetBoom Team63c7,878$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,878.4720367%136 W · 67 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed Natus Vincere39c7,500$2,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,949.9927645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Natus Vincere40c7,470$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00033746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3aa…1485backed BetBoom Team59c7,132$4,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,923.976852.9%36 W · 32 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Natus Vincere37c5,374$1,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,972.6489440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x469f…3d4fbacked Natus Vincere16c5,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.9923546.8%110 W · 125 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed BetBoom Team60c4,923$2,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,959.574141.5%17 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8310…8967backed BetBoom Team60c4,180$2,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6729657.3%55 W · 41 L+8.5wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd857…c092backed Natus Vincere36c3,536$1,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,272.691741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50ac…a924backed BetBoom Team61c3,127$1,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.379555.8%53 W · 42 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+22.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Natus Vincere39c3,000$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,17015544.5%69 W · 86 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9ad…6e72backed Natus Vincere15c3,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2698…0958backed Natus Vincere39c3,000$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,169.9913441.8%56 W · 78 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a46…ab25backed Natus Vincere34c2,860$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97812156.2%68 W · 53 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked BetBoom Team64c2,356$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.129160.1%175 W · 116 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Natus Vincere38c2,254$857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856.6518452.2%96 W · 88 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc840…3412backed Natus Vincere35c2,100$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7251323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Natus Vincere32c2,100$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67251751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Natus Vincere23c2,098$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.748728.7%25 W · 62 L-8.5wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-38.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed BetBoom Team60c2,090$1,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831.4911547%54 W · 61 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Natus Vincere20c2,076$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.6471342.5%303 W · 410 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Natus Vincere33c2,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65085851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bfc…ce53backed Natus Vincere5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011647.4%55 W · 61 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd74…334dbacked Natus Vincere12c2,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Natus Vincere37c1,900$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70381029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba45…87f3backed BetBoom Team61c1,804$1,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.612853.6%15 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick60cpaid+0.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Natus Vincere40c1,700$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68034544.3%153 W · 192 L-15.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6878…6cdbbacked Natus Vincere39c1,649$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.951942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69ba…c976backed Natus Vincere18c1,583$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2852951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere31c1,503$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.552,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Natus Vincere39c1,500$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58539936.8%147 W · 252 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Natus Vincere39c1,500$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.9819742.1%83 W · 114 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed Natus Vincere39c1,309$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.397341.1%30 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49b3…b137backed Natus Vincere38c1,300$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.40per pick46cpaid+98.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked Natus Vincere37c1,300$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.9956542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc3e…6774backed Natus Vincere33c1,274$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.233336.4%12 W · 21 L-5.3wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-40%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8120…54c9backed Natus Vincere40c1,255$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5027941.8%33 W · 46 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x336f…c31ebacked Natus Vincere35c1,110$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.442259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Natus Vincere8c1,084$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.864123.4%150 W · 491 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa0…1160backed BetBoom Team60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40014854.7%81 W · 67 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55e5…df30backed BetBoom Team64c953.61$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.961464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62f2…07f8backed BetBoom Team61c926.42$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.3114253.5%76 W · 66 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f9…bb8fbacked BetBoom Team60c925$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3704358.1%25 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x495c…1249backed BetBoom Team62c910$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked BetBoom Team60c901.52$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.6136041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x69f0…1e93backed Natus Vincere39c900$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf41…bfd4backed BetBoom Team60c800$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3201758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+21.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x682c…ef07backed Natus Vincere40c750$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3009946.5%46 W · 53 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere36c744.44$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.171,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed BetBoom Team72c743.61$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.161,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20b2…f114backed Natus Vincere37c738.36$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.1915131.8%48 W · 103 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2b3…c439backed BetBoom Team61c696$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.44540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked Natus Vincere28c684.99$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.9531251.3%160 W · 152 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8979…9428backed BetBoom Team62c677.37$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.48661.6%53 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Natus Vincere40c671$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.422727.3%62 W · 165 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed BetBoom Team76c658.1$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.949636.5%35 W · 61 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Natus Vincere16c623.01$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.238950.6%45 W · 44 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Natus Vincere40c600$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24020642.2%87 W · 119 L-0.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed BetBoom Team61c595$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.052853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed BetBoom Team77c580.34$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.9646649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Natus Vincere37c540.64$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.1760542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd12d…f0dbbacked BetBoom Team79c503.36$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.3614956.4%84 W · 65 L+0.6wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47c6…2fe4backed BetBoom Team61c500$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19514849.3%73 W · 75 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x746c…50debacked Natus Vincere20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xae35…5dd3backed Natus Vincere40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20015643.6%68 W · 88 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed BetBoom Team59c499.99$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2052250%11 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4302…4f64backed Natus Vincere39c499.99$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.9757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+45.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed BetBoom Team72c499.97$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.0772035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4e3…d5f4backed BetBoom Team61c491.8$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.816641.6%69 W · 97 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8737…72babacked Natus Vincere41c488.9$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005550.9%28 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked BetBoom Team62c483.87$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.8716665.7%109 W · 57 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae10…d0d9backed BetBoom Team63c475.31$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.3117353.2%92 W · 81 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed Natus Vincere38c473.93$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.632441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked BetBoom Team61c464.88$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.319943.2%86 W · 113 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e06…95d1backed BetBoom Team80c464.39$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.121855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed Natus Vincere5c440$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.663032.5%205 W · 425 L+1.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2570…9fe2backed BetBoom Team79c436.39$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.292254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+57.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x953f…15e6backed Natus Vincere7c428.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3015064.7%97 W · 53 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b64…eaf4backed Natus Vincere33c408.9$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.2917740.7%72 W · 105 L-11.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Natus Vincere19c408$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.447844.9%35 W · 43 L-5.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed BetBoom Team62c407.11$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.799156%51 W · 40 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+22.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6998…ae95backed Natus Vincere17c400$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6816821.4%36 W · 132 L+0.4wins0.00per pick21cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6633…dcfebacked BetBoom Team61c400$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1564341.9%18 W · 25 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-23.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x051d…1992backed Natus Vincere19c395.54$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.948213.4%11 W · 71 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Natus Vincere38c391.97$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.9513027.7%36 W · 94 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-35.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Natus Vincere38c386.56$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.271,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Natus Vincere18c384.03$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7014251.4%73 W · 69 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x95c8…3469backed BetBoom Team62c381.39$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.3921551.6%111 W · 104 L+10.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed BetBoom Team61c363.54$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.8222945.9%105 W · 124 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Natus Vincere40c361.78$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.8656955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed BetBoom Team62c324.25$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.2520156.7%114 W · 87 L+0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd972…c9f4backed BetBoom Team62c322.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.583557.1%20 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed BetBoom Team62c322.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.581747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick62cpaid-20.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed BetBoom Team61c300$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11713657.4%78 W · 58 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.