TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BetBoom Teamof Natus Vincere, BetBoom Team
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$290,545

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $290,545 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 215 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf9b5…09eebacked Natus Vincere37c38,819$14,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,521.0355157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed BetBoom Team60c18,814$11,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,613.9654556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed BetBoom Team63c16,149$10,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,014.5332854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ab4…96a5backed Natus Vincere40c15,427$6,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,208.8511854.2%64 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7600…4478backed BetBoom Team62c9,000$5,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,42022647.3%107 W · 119 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Natus Vincere5c7,087$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.0871454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6b7d…fbafbacked Natus Vincere6c6,355$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.271540%6 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Natus Vincere7c6,198$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.540014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Natus Vincere39c5,798$2,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,23353451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed Natus Vincere1c5,555$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.77449.1%4 W · 40 L-0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-81.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Natus Vincere41c5,401$2,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,212.6213045.4%59 W · 71 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f40…e1f2backed Natus Vincere39c5,153$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.264932.7%16 W · 33 L-7.0wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-35.1%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xbb11…8f3fbacked BetBoom Team66c4,510$2,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,517.410551.4%54 W · 51 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5b7…7ffabacked BetBoom Team63c4,420$2,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,652.845642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed BetBoom Team72c4,286$3,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,182.0151049%250 W · 260 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8310…8967backed BetBoom Team60c4,150$2,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,659.939657.3%55 W · 41 L+8.5wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed BetBoom Team63c3,771$2,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,395.3315345.8%70 W · 83 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Natus Vincere21c3,750$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.051,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed BetBoom Team63c3,564$2,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,318.6622643.8%99 W · 127 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Natus Vincere19c3,207$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Natus Vincere8c3,044$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.4896557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf96f…b5e5backed Natus Vincere40c3,037$1,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,228.834341.9%18 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Natus Vincere13c2,961$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.8579959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd4d1…086ebacked BetBoom Team60c2,899$1,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,159.433953.8%21 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed BetBoom Team62c2,853$1,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,084.3120156.7%114 W · 87 L+0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Natus Vincere40c2,517$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.2977941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49b…a5b8backed BetBoom Team60c2,200$1,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8708655.8%48 W · 38 L-0.4wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x469f…3d4fbacked Natus Vincere11c1,968$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.7623546.8%110 W · 125 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Natus Vincere41c1,699$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.511,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec14…5a4ebacked Natus Vincere7c1,586$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-70.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed BetBoom Team61c1,547$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.5151751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed BetBoom Team62c1,501$929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.160349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4c52…e75fbacked Natus Vincere11c1,493$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.0913732.8%45 W · 92 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c67…e838backed Natus Vincere11c1,418$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.172544%11 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a46…ab25backed Natus Vincere39c1,323$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.1212156.2%68 W · 53 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd43…88d7backed Natus Vincere40c1,260$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010334%35 W · 68 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed BetBoom Team60c1,009$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.5560552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a84…0e54backed Natus Vincere5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504233.3%14 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x61e9…cb1bbacked BetBoom Team61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3902450%12 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x168b…0acfbacked Natus Vincere14c899.98$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12318362.8%115 W · 68 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ee3…7c36backed Natus Vincere9c807.14$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7024131.5%76 W · 165 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Natus Vincere38c789.47$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30048539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked Natus Vincere39c739.71$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.1316550.9%84 W · 81 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e37…cfbdbacked Natus Vincere42c689$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.38728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-45.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere37c681.59$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.381,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x274f…971abacked BetBoom Team63c634.92$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.9214657.5%84 W · 62 L+0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6998…ae95backed Natus Vincere5c616.68$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2316821.4%36 W · 132 L+0.4wins0.00per pick21cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed BetBoom Team62c540.32$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.321,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae35…5dd3backed BetBoom Team62c528.45$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.8115643.6%68 W · 88 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed BetBoom Team60c515.5$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.378728.7%25 W · 62 L-8.5wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-38.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Natus Vincere38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19065441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3be…f543backed BetBoom Team62c483.87$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.8725457.9%147 W · 107 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6450…9547backed Natus Vincere24c457.77$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.9110141.6%42 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb74c…b149backed Natus Vincere2c450$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6450%0 W · 45 L-7.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked Natus Vincere30c449.99$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13546240.7%188 W · 274 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x930e…38cfbacked Natus Vincere3c402.16$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0937018.9%70 W · 300 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2639…a9b6backed Natus Vincere39c401.56$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.8915549%76 W · 79 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8b8…61dcbacked BetBoom Team59c400$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16418065.6%118 W · 62 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed Natus Vincere3c400$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.363032.5%205 W · 425 L+1.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked Natus Vincere3c399.96$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1437811.1%42 W · 336 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed BetBoom Team61c393.91$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.6497142.7%415 W · 556 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4a9…3d6fbacked BetBoom Team66c385.14$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.819145.1%41 W · 50 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4533…ef2bbacked Natus Vincere29c375.86$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1092050%10 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x930b…0223backed BetBoom Team62c369.73$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.523459%138 W · 96 L+0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…a5edbacked Natus Vincere6c341.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4640644.6%181 W · 225 L+0.8wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1311…a3abbacked BetBoom Team60c333.42$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.425756.1%32 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed BetBoom Team62c322.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.5846664.2%299 W · 167 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xceb7…8b33backed Natus Vincere39c322.01$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.2611450%57 W · 57 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed BetBoom Team62c321.42$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.1445046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Natus Vincere9c319.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.46132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed Natus Vincere5c300$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1433549.9%167 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Natus Vincere11c300$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3360646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe992…8271backed Natus Vincere39c298$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Natus Vincere17c292.51$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5064149.9%320 W · 321 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd68c…025abacked BetBoom Team63c290.79$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.591030%3 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick54cpaid-49.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Natus Vincere11c271.05$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.599844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc87d…6f31backed BetBoom Team57c261.75$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabd6…ca90backed BetBoom Team60c260$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104850%4 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x41a6…f2e3backed BetBoom Team57c257.51$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.73366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x688e…148dbacked BetBoom Team78c256.41$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.413154.8%17 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x746c…50debacked Natus Vincere39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x917b…e433backed Natus Vincere39c246.94$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.2210550.5%53 W · 52 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf69…4fa2backed Natus Vincere21c240$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.253634%182 W · 354 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76fc…48fabacked Natus Vincere39c231.42$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.3213247.7%63 W · 69 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-15%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x624e…e95cbacked Natus Vincere39c230.85$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.073046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6008…4638backed Natus Vincere39c217.63$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.924047.5%19 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0030…04e9backed Natus Vincere20c213.47$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.934152.2%178 W · 163 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x823b…59e9backed Natus Vincere12c210.04$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256349.2%31 W · 32 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f03…ed48backed BetBoom Team57c208.96$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.85560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed BetBoom Team63c208.63$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.171,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5264…54cebacked Natus Vincere39c207.2$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8012348%59 W · 64 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed BetBoom Team62c206.89$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.6245951.9%238 W · 221 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03e6…24e6backed Natus Vincere39c205.34$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.2110649.1%52 W · 54 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed BetBoom Team56c203.31$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.0934154.5%186 W · 155 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6312…f94ebacked Natus Vincere12c200$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.829150.5%46 W · 45 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa7…003fbacked Natus Vincere12c200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2445052.4%236 W · 214 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5df0…bb23backed BetBoom Team70c198.56$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.57366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed BetBoom Team62c195.17$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.1648352.4%253 W · 230 L-2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48aa…2eeebacked Natus Vincere39c186.26$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.7710250%51 W · 51 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda86…6ff9backed BetBoom Team60c175.72$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.291435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick42cpaid+132.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.