CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs FOLHA AMARELA (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe12b3f5cd154862ca5c35458847661dc391ab2c74640a5524fc8c7a133846af4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Keydof Keyd, FOLHA AMARELA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,836 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x861f…a189backed Keyd | 64c | 1,951$1,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.78 | 921 | 52.6%484 W · 437 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked FOLHA AMARELA | 35c | 1,382$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.79 | 7,990 | 50.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L | +180.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed FOLHA AMARELA | 2c | 932.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…15e6backed FOLHA AMARELA | 49c | 371.28$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.77 | 275 | 56.4%155 W · 120 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Keyd | 53c | 313.02$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.2 | 6,501 | 42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L | -79.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd41b…f231backed Keyd | 64c | 256.72$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.79 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Keyd | 52c | 183.23$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.45 | 844 | 54.3%458 W · 386 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed FOLHA AMARELA | 55c | 182.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked FOLHA AMARELA | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 724 | 51.2%371 W · 353 L | +29.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked FOLHA AMARELA | 51c | 137.84$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9704…9d43backed Keyd | 56c | 107.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x893d…c7d1backed Keyd | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed FOLHA AMARELA | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,146 | 43.5%499 W · 647 L | -17.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…89d0backed FOLHA AMARELA | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked FOLHA AMARELA | 45c | 91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 1,573 | 35.3%556 W · 1,017 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed FOLHA AMARELA | 35c | 82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 960 | 49.7%477 W · 483 L | -18.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8945…640bbacked FOLHA AMARELA | 35c | 77.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 262 | 57.6%151 W · 111 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Keyd | 58c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 916 | 48.9%448 W · 468 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122a…c326backed FOLHA AMARELA | 27c | 74.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed FOLHA AMARELA | 30c | 66.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Keyd | 55c | 56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Keyd | 52c | 52.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 5,095 | 55.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L | +119.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e1…b9cdbacked Keyd | 75c | 52.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked FOLHA AMARELA | 48c | 50.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 193 | 44%85 W · 108 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Keyd | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 193 | 52.3%101 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c6…9520backed FOLHA AMARELA | 31c | 48.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe56a…0edfbacked Keyd | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed FOLHA AMARELA | 48c | 48.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 872 | 44.8%391 W · 481 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked FOLHA AMARELA | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 353 | 42.8%151 W · 202 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed FOLHA AMARELA | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 527 | 55.8%294 W · 233 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…b170backed Keyd | 54c | 37.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 114 | 42.1%48 W · 66 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Keyd | 55c | 36.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e95…473bbacked FOLHA AMARELA | 48c | 31.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked FOLHA AMARELA | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 229 | 31.4%72 W · 157 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed FOLHA AMARELA | 48c | 29.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 282 | 48.9%138 W · 144 L | +21.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1125…1d8ebacked Keyd | 66c | 26.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb012…0136backed Keyd | 75c | 20.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaae…64bbbacked Keyd | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da2…c429backed Keyd | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Keyd vs FOLHA AMARELA (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Stagethis page
- Counter-Strike: Keyd vs FOLHA AMARELA - Map 2 WinnerKeyd won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.