Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe12f91c7defd585e9089bfa055394b5b792d1ee5f8196c2cbf9f18aca706e975
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 74c | 356.19$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.32 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 73c | 193.86$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.62 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 10c | 184.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 59c | 181.4$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.91 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3d…977abacked Yes | 57c | 181.01$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.40per pick | 62cpaid | -69%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed Yes | 73c | 162.58$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.43 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 45c | 160$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.93 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 8c | 155.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x57c2…792dbacked Yes | 65c | 153.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 67c | 127.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 70c | 127.89$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 27c | 108.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.54 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 49c | 101.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 30c | 90.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.44 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 84.68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed No | 24c | 82.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.08 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 64c | 72.26$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 48c | 67.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bce…1b9cbacked Yes | 77c | 67.45$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 47c | 67.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 45c | 65.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 52c | 58.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 26c | 53.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 75c | 50.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x923f…6c4abacked Yes | 44c | 48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa927…52a3backed No | 43c | 46.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 39c | 41.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 52c | 40.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xded2…c0e3backed Yes | 61c | 33.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…15e9backed Yes | 78c | 31.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b8…4493backed No | 44c | 30.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 28.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ad…ff75backed Yes | 56c | 26.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 63c | 25.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…8a2ebacked Yes | 63c | 21.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9dcfbacked Yes | 75c | 21.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 75c | 20.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 72c | 15.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on May 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.