Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C or below on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1535ec7078e0942676322d453c7eedee0f72149ce43816b0307ee15b69397bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,934 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x02f3…94cbbacked No | 1c | 71,900$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed No | 3c | 1,224$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…9a5cbacked No | 1c | 719.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 10c | 644.8$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.39 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 5c | 384.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 13c | 295$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 66c | 288.15$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 67c | 263.57$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.17 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 19c | 261.22$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.51 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…13f3backed No | 16c | 252.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 8c | 224.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 7c | 221.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked No | 7c | 178.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 13c | 162.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 13c | 143.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x663a…5c51backed No | 22c | 140.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 9c | 126.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 19c | 120.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 56c | 119$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.36 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed0f…b307backed No | 22c | 113.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96f0…23dcbacked No | 14c | 111$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 10c | 102.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4536…c33fbacked No | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 19c | 86.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 18c | 78.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b34…2fdcbacked No | 19c | 77.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked No | 19c | 69.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e3…52afbacked Yes | 56c | 67.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 47c | 63.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x643d…f7ddbacked No | 17c | 60.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…32bebacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa9…a6c9backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa41b…882cbacked Yes | 48c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 49c | 34.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e4…f926backed No | 38c | 30.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 64c | 28.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 73c | 27.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076f…dc12backed Yes | 73c | 27.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 42c | 27.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…b1fcbacked No | 45c | 26.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc211…cc43backed Yes | 44c | 25.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6f…a383backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…bf1abacked Yes | 75c | 15.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…ed38backed Yes | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8216…1eedbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C or below on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C or higher on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.