Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe15e0d9e0dc2b179b22bb9a70e3b1e98601e7270cf0438e3c7c788a73cafe35d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,701
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 7c | 162$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 55c | 151.74$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.72 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 51c | 151.19$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.86 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 45c | 140.64$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.78 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 41c | 120.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 49c | 117.74$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.02 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 47c | 105.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 62c | 99.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 29c | 90$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 50c | 86.37$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 40c | 79.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 63c | 67.06$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…bf91backed Yes | 51c | 58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 52.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 39c | 51.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 53c | 47.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 53c | 42.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 48c | 39.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 60c | 36.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe05b…6d6ebacked Yes | 59c | 34.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 52c | 29.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6901…cb49backed No | 45c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf651…86b1backed Yes | 63c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 47c | 26.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 42c | 25.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed Yes | 60c | 25.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 51c | 24.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 67c | 24.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked Yes | 59c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…0988backed No | 46c | 24.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 43c | 23.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 42c | 23.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…3c3abacked Yes | 53c | 22.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…2139backed Yes | 58c | 22.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 76c | 20.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…8ca1backed Yes | 58c | 19.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…236ebacked Yes | 61c | 18.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07c…6c36backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 78c | 12.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.