Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91c2175feabee1d57e46c324b154161cec25e0cd38acf9724c223ba1c6021afa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 23c | 891.6$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.18 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed No | 78c | 540.93$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.2 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 23c | 203.39$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 194.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 77c | 192.81$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 178.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 125.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7f…2e64backed No | 78c | 122.6$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 24c | 110.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedba…002dbacked No | 78c | 110.22$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 96 | 79.2%76 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 26c | 101.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 23c | 99.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 98.41$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4952…d9b0backed Yes | 16c | 96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…31b5backed Yes | 22c | 92.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 71c | 90$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 19c | 89.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 22c | 84.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 77c | 72.3$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 68.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…20e0backed Yes | 17c | 67.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 67.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 67.46$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 24c | 62.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 68c | 59.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 19c | 58.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 20c | 58.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 58.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5f…6c06backed Yes | 22c | 58.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…8ca1backed Yes | 23c | 56.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 24c | 53.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…2139backed Yes | 23c | 52.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 76c | 52.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 21c | 52.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 47.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25d0…1515backed Yes | 24c | 46.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 77c | 45.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2a…967bbacked Yes | 23c | 43.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 73c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 73c | 41.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 37.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 77c | 36.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 71c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 79c | 28.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 74c | 26.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed No | 76c | 26.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…7a24backed No | 79c | 25.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 23.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 77c | 23.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 76c | 20.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 78c | 20.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 77c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…5992backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 77c | 19.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd98…c007backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aac…bc3bbacked No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 77c | 18.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff4e…c843backed No | 79c | 18.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 21 | 90.5%19 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 73cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 77c | 16.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 73c | 16.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf651…86b1backed No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.