Tennis · resolved market
Guangzhou Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Alycia Parks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1c98db12baf8ae8b444e944f3e11efc62fbb9cfa432201af94acf7c214807ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tomljanovicof Tomljanovic, Parks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tomljanovic | 80c | 15,311$12,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,131.52 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Parks | 18c | 9,215$1,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,636.05 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…fa0bbacked Parks | 0c | 9,196$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Parks | 19c | 4,560$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.9 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Parks | 25c | 2,689$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.66 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Tomljanovic | 67c | 954.34$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.93 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Parks | 36c | 788.51$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.17 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Tomljanovic | 71c | 770.07$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.32 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Tomljanovic | 59c | 687$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.57 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Parks | 24c | 595$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.88 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Tomljanovic | 70c | 510.69$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.39 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Parks | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Parks | 9c | 500$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 191 | 31.4%60 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Parks | 31c | 374.58$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.12 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c63…a2f9backed Parks | 31c | 260$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.7 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Tomljanovic | 69c | 209.98$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Parks | 27c | 205.48$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed Tomljanovic | 73c | 205.48$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 202 | 57.4%116 W · 86 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Tomljanovic | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Tomljanovic | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…15cdbacked Parks | 39c | 120$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Tomljanovic | 73c | 99.21$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Tomljanovic | 73c | 75.34$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Parks | 27c | 75.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Parks | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Parks | 18c | 67.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 496 | 32.3%160 W · 336 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f7…f858backed Tomljanovic | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Tomljanovic | 72c | 29.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd40d…de71backed Tomljanovic | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.