Tennis · resolved market
Cap Cana: Francesco Maestrelli vs Mattia Bellucci
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1ca7c3f76450ab587db5a31c2dca6e605899bcf0d9db8e8581e8730cc5ec3b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mattia Bellucciof Francesco Maestrelli, Mattia Bellucci
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,632 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Francesco Maestrelli | 8c | 2,695$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.7 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de0…f7f1backed Mattia Bellucci | 73c | 1,068$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.62 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Francesco Maestrelli | 35c | 529.98$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.49 | 872 | 51.1%446 W · 426 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Francesco Maestrelli | 35c | 456.62$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.83 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Francesco Maestrelli | 30c | 408.76$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.1 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Francesco Maestrelli | 21c | 380.36$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.16 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Mattia Bellucci | 66c | 379.45$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.45 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ba…6c27backed Mattia Bellucci | 80c | 313.64$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 1,186 | 62.8%745 W · 441 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Francesco Maestrelli | 20c | 286.64$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.66 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Mattia Bellucci | 66c | 255.1$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.57 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Francesco Maestrelli | 16c | 194.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ad…915dbacked Mattia Bellucci | 64c | 155.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.68 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a5…f64abacked Mattia Bellucci | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 849 | 63.1%536 W · 313 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Francesco Maestrelli | 36c | 134.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Mattia Bellucci | 62c | 131.73$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.08 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6196…1a64backed Mattia Bellucci | 65c | 123.51$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.51 | 169 | 57.4%97 W · 72 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Francesco Maestrelli | 28c | 113.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 279 | 40.1%112 W · 167 L | -11.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Francesco Maestrelli | 27c | 92.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Francesco Maestrelli | 27c | 78.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Mattia Bellucci | 61c | 77$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 990 | 56%554 W · 436 L | +32.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Mattia Bellucci | 65c | 74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Francesco Maestrelli | 34c | 64.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Francesco Maestrelli | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 580 | 48.4%281 W · 299 L | +16.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Francesco Maestrelli | 35c | 53.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Francesco Maestrelli | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Mattia Bellucci | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 363 | 49.9%181 W · 182 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Francesco Maestrelli | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,831 | 53%971 W · 860 L | -45.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Mattia Bellucci | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 347 | 44.4%154 W · 193 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Francesco Maestrelli | 34c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Francesco Maestrelli | 33c | 38.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Mattia Bellucci | 62c | 32.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1793…4ebbbacked Mattia Bellucci | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 940 | 60.6%570 W · 370 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8161…e08ebacked Mattia Bellucci | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 145 | 53.1%77 W · 68 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.