Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1e6cdc77e7b13325edfcf9451a893481ad6ac1cfaf6809e3987f129c9698aa9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,440 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed Yes | 23c | 441.32$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 20c | 301.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 300.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 20c | 261.73$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.35 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 5c | 242.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 189$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 15c | 168.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 22c | 163.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 20c | 161.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 156.85$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 18c | 142.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 15c | 142.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 139.88$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed No | 76c | 131.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 79c | 115.05$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbd…e8e7backed Yes | 16c | 111.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 78c | 110$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 100.75$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5a…a973backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 99.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 79c | 92.85$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 29c | 82.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 79.05$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 19c | 74.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9575backed Yes | 28c | 71.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 20c | 65.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 78c | 63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…dbc4backed Yes | 29c | 56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 77c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 78c | 15.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 11°C or below on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 12°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 13°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 15°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 16°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 17°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on March 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C or higher on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.