Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will NK Celje vs. Shelbourne FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1ec7b55ff868d3d416fa190973877886b71ba81c12a6b2b7b4f00683b664667
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5520…32ffbacked No | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 65c | 530.98$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.48 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 5c | 505$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 14c | 495.1$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.79 | 197 | 36%71 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 33c | 293.46$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed Yes | 14c | 282.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.1 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 43c | 279.17$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.92 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 16c | 167.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.7 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9f…d101backed Yes | 29c | 155.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Yes | 16c | 139.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.38 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 39c | 132.03$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f6…b32cbacked Yes | 72c | 86.43$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 72cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed Yes | 17c | 85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.55 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Yes | 17c | 82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.06 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Yes | 17c | 75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…e6f5backed Yes | 17c | 74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.42 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Yes | 17c | 71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Yes | 17c | 71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 72c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 118 | 69.5%82 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Yes | 17c | 64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x486e…62c7backed No | 58c | 60.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Yes | 17c | 59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 28c | 42.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 42c | 26.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NK Celje vs. Shelbourne FC end in a draw?this page
- Will NK Celje win on 2025-12-18?No won
- Will Shelbourne FC win on 2025-12-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.