Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 58-59°F on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe229987ae01ac399596f7eea92f15c1e8dae81e94621116c579c1770ac278d1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb666…8f47backed Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 30c | 468.43$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.51 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked No | 74c | 333.63$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.32 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 13c | 328.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 328.47$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 11c | 299.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 190.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 12c | 185.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 181.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 17c | 157.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 16c | 157.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 24c | 128.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked Yes | 12c | 116.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x590b…db04backed Yes | 22c | 98.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 93.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 66c | 83.8$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 13c | 78.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 22c | 76.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 77c | 75.08$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 76c | 75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 79c | 62.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 74c | 57.49$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 77c | 48.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 22c | 47.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cde…b02bbacked No | 76c | 39.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 59c | 36.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd799…f6e1backed No | 77c | 35.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 80c | 34.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce4…5385backed No | 77c | 33.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…86babacked No | 77c | 32.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x069e…4636backed No | 59c | 25.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 58c | 24.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61b8…e749backed Yes | 45c | 22.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa565…615abacked No | 64c | 21.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 73c | 20.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x171c…942dbacked No | 76c | 19.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 80c | 16.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 75c | 13.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 58-59°F on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 47°F or below on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 66°F or higher on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 52-53°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 54-55°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 56-57°F on April 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 62-63°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.