Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 56-57°F on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x632f6d32ce3663f34d294ec11685c7fd915755e0992eb0a152d25eb46a0022a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,496
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,496 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90e9…ea16backed No | 0c | 10,105$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 5c | 592.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.45 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 6c | 493.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.56 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 12c | 491.36$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.99 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 16c | 469.65$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.41 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb666…8f47backed No | 32c | 398.07$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.42 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 368.68$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked Yes | 6c | 283.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.46 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 13c | 193.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.88 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 41c | 175.13$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.68 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb2c…d68fbacked No | 68c | 169.54$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.37 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -66%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 58c | 159.58$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 32c | 134.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 76c | 75.67$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.51 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 24c | 69.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.14 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…931dbacked No | 40c | 67.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 53c | 55.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 34c | 41.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…8c67backed Yes | 68c | 25.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…8809backed Yes | 80c | 18.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 74c | 18.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 61c | 17.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 77c | 14.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 56-57°F on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 47°F or below on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 66°F or higher on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 52-53°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 54-55°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 58-59°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 62-63°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.