Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe259095b1701a486994aa1396d2990fee6b74d90713ba5ce92cbd957f11f8415
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 2,927$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…bf2abacked Yes | 69c | 332.71$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.22 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 226.93$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.37 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 19c | 181.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 60c | 116.7$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 57c | 106.86$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b4…a38abacked No | 11c | 103$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 33c | 102$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 88.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 68c | 84.16$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 79.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 78c | 78.4$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.98 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4952…d9b0backed Yes | 16c | 71.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.95 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 36c | 70.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 32c | 62.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 17c | 60.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…fd75backed Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d1…d203backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa23f…5af9backed Yes | 51c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 56.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 26c | 51.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4563…e698backed Yes | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…a752backed Yes | 29c | 49.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 23c | 46.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 23c | 45.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 48c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 68c | 38.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c8…2e9abacked Yes | 32c | 37.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 31c | 35.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 40c | 35.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 45c | 32.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb460…6424backed Yes | 71c | 30.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 40c | 30.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 64c | 29.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddd…cab9backed No | 74c | 25.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5329…fea7backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 71c | 19.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 76c | 17.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 69c | 16.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C or below on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.