Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team Bald (BO1) - The International Europe Open Qualifier 2 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe26e0c15845ccd2e8010769a070b12f464b3d69c144082fafc8a9b7a7ae79146
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Baldof 4ikibamboni, Team Bald
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed 4ikibamboni | 37c | 1,465$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.52 | 476 | 46.4%221 W · 255 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08b8…e7dabacked 4ikibamboni | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 310 | 55.2%171 W · 139 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed 4ikibamboni | 9c | 976$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.36 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Bald | 63c | 968.5$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.34 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Bald | 50c | 662.87$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.97 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed 4ikibamboni | 51c | 300$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked 4ikibamboni | 8c | 294.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked 4ikibamboni | 7c | 294.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…5c4cbacked Team Bald | 50c | 260.18$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.09 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed 4ikibamboni | 17c | 251.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed 4ikibamboni | 46c | 211.26$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.52 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb97e…262bbacked Team Bald | 56c | 177.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.38 | 526 | 49.2%259 W · 267 L | +21.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Team Bald | 75c | 167.8$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…b1d4backed 4ikibamboni | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe83…82a8backed Team Bald | 51c | 81.61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked 4ikibamboni | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed Team Bald | 54c | 68.37$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -8.5wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Team Bald | 68c | 61.66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…8895backed Team Bald | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 282 | 52.5%148 W · 134 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.