MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2785eeed1b066a42f0668e9b3076c3392bd0bef4b4a62f87bdc1c1b093e4d56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof New York Mets, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,296
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,296 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6239…1d79backed New York Mets | 62c | 2,405$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 262 | 45.8%120 W · 142 L | -17.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 858.4$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.96 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Miami Marlins | 25c | 767.99$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.99 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Mets | 75c | 760.82$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.11 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Miami Marlins | 40c | 634$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.22 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Miami Marlins | 47c | 599.99$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.99 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked New York Mets | 77c | 573.91$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.55 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed New York Mets | 60c | 400$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked New York Mets | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…11b3backed Miami Marlins | 40c | 375$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Miami Marlins | 47c | 299.99$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.99 | 352 | 45.5%160 W · 192 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Miami Marlins | 39c | 296$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.56 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Miami Marlins | 39c | 204$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.44 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffb…e82abacked Miami Marlins | 30c | 200$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.8 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 25c | 194.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.19 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Miami Marlins | 45c | 165.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.18 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…f7dfbacked New York Mets | 61c | 164$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Miami Marlins | 42c | 145.24$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked New York Mets | 76c | 142.95$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.64 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 141.87$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.87 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed New York Mets | 54c | 137.97$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.09 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked New York Mets | 53c | 120.24$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.44 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 101.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.3 | 403 | 51.4%207 W · 196 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda60…595cbacked New York Mets | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 88.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.81 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Miami Marlins | 28c | 87.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f2…692ebacked New York Mets | 61c | 82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Miami Marlins | 22c | 71.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.75 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Miami Marlins | 40c | 59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked New York Mets | 71c | 48.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…c55fbacked New York Mets | 53c | 46.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Miami Marlins | 37c | 46.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 341 | 64.2%219 W · 122 L | +22.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed New York Mets | 77c | 46.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e90…188dbacked New York Mets | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 852 | 35.8%305 W · 547 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Miami Marlins | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac5c…f978backed New York Mets | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Miami Marlins | 46c | 31.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b7…0ed5backed Miami Marlins | 39c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +153.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Miami Marlins | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…38bfbacked New York Mets | 55c | 27.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Mets | 67c | 20.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f8…22babacked New York Mets | 73c | 20.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8911…5ffabacked New York Mets | 74c | 20.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.