Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Holstein Kiel win on 2025-12-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2aaf10f56e7e4e74b26342a62776e4055b0d98e7f431bd6486c85b8c44328f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,344
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,344 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 52c | 25,000$13,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,000 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 48c | 24,783$11,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,895.84 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 53c | 7,000$3,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,290 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 47c | 2,655$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248.01 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Yes | 79c | 2,554$2,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.26 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 74c | 2,304$1,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.75 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…50aabacked No | 52c | 1,160$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 52c | 778.48$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.17 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked No | 47c | 656$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.32 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 17c | 608.35$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.58 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes | 48c | 580$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.6 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed No | 20c | 399.5$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.88 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 23c | 379.64$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.58 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 80c | 254.55$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Yes | 46c | 245.65$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.65 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed No | 47c | 208.59$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.04 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa6…0b3bbacked No | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 48c | 199.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 13c | 196.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 52c | 182.44$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.44 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 51c | 139$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 43c | 110.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 30c | 90.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Yes | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 79c | 71.57$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed No | 69c | 57.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 22c | 57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3113backed Yes | 52c | 49.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 32c | 46.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed No | 48c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.24per pick | 43cpaid | -69%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 47c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8747…8b5dbacked No | 75c | 14.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Holstein Kiel win on 2025-12-20?this page
- Will Holstein Kiel vs. SG Dynamo Dresden end in a draw?No won
- Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2025-12-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.