NFL · resolved market
Will the Chiefs beat the Buccaneers by 10 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2dd6c2932471fce94f9e9de55ea356b0882e3ce7641d81f4c79c09318565b07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Buccaneersof Chiefs, Buccaneers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a61…5781backed Chiefs | 51c | 16,537$8,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,404 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Buccaneers | 50c | 10,016$4,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,036.5 | 251 | 37.5%94 W · 157 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Buccaneers | 50c | 5,664$2,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,825.86 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…c043backed Chiefs | 48c | 3,415$1,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,639.31 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed Buccaneers | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…fc40backed Buccaneers | 50c | 2,300$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…d494backed Buccaneers | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Buccaneers | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 129 | 34.9%45 W · 84 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Buccaneers | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.55 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Buccaneers | 51c | 350$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.5 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Chiefs | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -8.3wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6434…cdbebacked Buccaneers | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x531a…da3cbacked Buccaneers | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Buccaneers | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 141 | 39%55 W · 86 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Buccaneers | 52c | 192$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…537abacked Chiefs | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa69f…6874backed Buccaneers | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Buccaneers | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ada…e2b1backed Chiefs | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -44%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Buccaneers | 52c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Chiefs beat the Buccaneers by 10 or more points?this page
- Will the Chiefs and Buccaneers combine for 46 or more points?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.