South American Leagues · resolved market
CR Vasco da Gama vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2e6cd4a1e6126aa8031980ac1eccb8dae6df688a1f95e66638a766b5cc331a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,946
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,946 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 3,395$1,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,828.49 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Over | 47c | 3,071$1,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,618.48 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 54c | 769.61$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.63 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 61c | 732.78$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.58 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 61c | 685.12$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.85 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b8…e32bbacked Under | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 80c | 458.57$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.59 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Under | 5c | 398.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +483.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 22c | 389.2$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 42c | 318.27$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.83 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Over | 46c | 315.51$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…7f3fbacked Over | 52c | 280.15$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.47 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…caadbacked Over | 55c | 242.74$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.23 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +8.1wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +29%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc72d…fc21backed Under | 54c | 227.83$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.03 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 15c | 225.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.58 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 66c | 195.04$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.54 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 27c | 159.37$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.34 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7767…4fb2backed Over | 52c | 107.09$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 55c | 105.2$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.56 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 48c | 96.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 45c | 96.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.19 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 67c | 89.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b3cbacked Over | 16c | 89.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.78 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Over | 46c | 84.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Under | 76c | 75.97$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 71c | 73.68$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 162 | 55.6%90 W · 72 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…80b4backed Over | 42c | 62.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 43c | 56.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Over | 46c | 52.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 26c | 49.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 313 | 55.6%174 W · 139 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Under | 76c | 47.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Under | 72c | 44.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…28bcbacked Over | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94f9…e1b8backed Under | 55c | 40.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de7…61c0backed Over | 46c | 29.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Over | 54c | 29.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a53…074abacked Under | 56c | 27.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 43 | 74.4%32 W · 11 L | +6.7wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked Under | 56c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed Under | 56c | 25.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 69c | 25.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb17…32b2backed Over | 45c | 24.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…a444backed Under | 56c | 23.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 63c | 21.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 53c | 19.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c7…bb75backed Under | 75c | 17.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Under | 68c | 15.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5this page
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5Over won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5Under won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-2.5)CR Vasco da Gama won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.