South American Leagues · resolved market
CR Vasco da Gama vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8c84206d8734c6586c2b6639c3213e50f8edb47b06b225f9c7ae12191fcec3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 59c | 3,363$1,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,990.75 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 29c | 2,269$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,606.1 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 37c | 915.66$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.26 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 68c | 890.12$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.84 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 27c | 782.91$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.65 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 64c | 470$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 44c | 371.29$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.47 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 73c | 342.9$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.58 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87df…48f3backed Over | 72c | 282.67$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.15 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1782…892fbacked Under | 32c | 281.15$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.81 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 57c | 260$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.8 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 54c | 217.89$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.23 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…2fbfbacked Over | 73c | 202.15$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.58 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 54c | 196.5$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.05 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 65c | 128.12$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.65 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0542…e195backed Over | 39c | 123.51$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.34 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…c33bbacked Over | 40c | 108.11$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.87 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 45c | 107.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 27c | 101.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b3cbacked Over | 29c | 97.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.07 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 69c | 68.1$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 336 | 58.3%196 W · 140 L | +32.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 75c | 60.2$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Under | 34c | 60.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Over | 69c | 58.94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Over | 70c | 58.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Over | 70c | 56.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 162 | 55.6%90 W · 72 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 61c | 55.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 61c | 55.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 335 | 60.9%204 W · 131 L | +18.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Over | 61c | 55.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 199 | 55.8%111 W · 88 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Over | 61c | 55.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked Over | 61c | 55.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1968…8c66backed Over | 61c | 55.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d0…1310backed Over | 61c | 55.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 61c | 55.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Over | 61c | 55.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 123 | 61.8%76 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f2…2512backed Over | 40c | 53.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a53…074abacked Over | 71c | 49.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 43 | 74.4%32 W · 11 L | +6.7wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Over | 65c | 48.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 199 | 63.8%127 W · 72 L | +19.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed Over | 71c | 47.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 29c | 46.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 251 | 47.8%120 W · 131 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Over | 43c | 44.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c50…89b6backed Over | 52c | 41.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85ad…d3fbbacked Over | 61c | 40.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…9d86backed Under | 67c | 39.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 36c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb017…9f48backed Over | 72c | 34.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked Over | 71c | 34.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 61c | 32.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 61c | 32.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 281 | 58.7%165 W · 116 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over | 61c | 32.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 178 | 57.3%102 W · 76 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 61c | 32.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Over | 39c | 28.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 51c | 28.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…85c4backed Over | 73c | 26.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf17a…e44dbacked Over | 73c | 26.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 67cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x834f…266ebacked Under | 51c | 26.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Over | 70c | 24.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…abe1backed Over | 70c | 20.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 108 | 75%81 W · 27 L | +16.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x66e8…c0e2backed Under | 74c | 17.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f22…4e49backed Over | 69c | 16.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 71c | 15.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5this page
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5Over won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5Under won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-2.5)CR Vasco da Gama won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.