Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump deport Elon Musk in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2ef9bdd44c6718b540fd3ce20723a377c695dd456618169a285207b67125cdb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2789…96a2backed Yes | 5c | 15,072$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 1c | 10,561$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.38 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 5,173$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.64 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…b4f5backed Yes | 3c | 4,503$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.18 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x243b…4810backed Yes | 4c | 2,961$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 3c | 2,747$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…eb6bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,421$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1207…39f1backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 4c | 1,844$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.98 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,672$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d8…e57abacked Yes | 4c | 1,270$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5015…2634backed Yes | 5c | 1,254$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,174$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5d…f2c1backed Yes | 5c | 992.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4634…a79cbacked Yes | 5c | 987.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…0b1abacked Yes | 4c | 974$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 4c | 912.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a3…0699backed Yes | 4c | 908.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 2c | 802.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba9…1c24backed Yes | 5c | 506.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 4c | 503.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes | 4c | 422.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…118fbacked Yes | 4c | 361.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…b6b1backed Yes | 4c | 256.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf14c…4e18backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd280…4737backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.